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Saturday, June 27, 2009

Ontario PC Leadership Race: Tim Hudak likely to win on the 3rd ballot

Tim Hudak reacting to the first round (from Stephen Taylor):

First ballot results:

Hudak: 3511 (34%)
Klees: 3093 (30%)
Elliott: 2728 (26%)
Hillier 1013 (10%)

Randy Hillier is now out of the running for leadership. He got into this race to push forward an agenda of ideas, and on that score I think he succeeded. It is unlikely that issues such as the Human Rights Tribunal would have been addressed if it wasn't for Randy Hillier.

An important thing to note about Randy Hillier supporters is that a significant portion of them voted for Randy Hillier and for no one else. Of all the candidate's supporters they are the least likely to completely fill out their preferential ballot. I predict that the second round vote total for each candidate will look very much like the first round.

This is very bad news for Christine Elliott, I do not expect her to survive the next round.

Christine Elliott voters will then most likely be split evenly between Mr. Hudak and Mr. Klees. I do not think that either remaining candidate has particularly strong support among Christine Elliott voters. As things stand now, I predict that this will be Mr. Hudak's night.

Posted by Hugh MacIntyre on June 27, 2009 in Canadian Provincial Politics | Permalink

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