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Friday, February 13, 2009

The worst of all possible predictions, also "by their deeds you shall know them"

If you're not depressed yet, Gerald Celente, trend forecaster, might help you get there. Here's video of Celente on Russia Today. While I don't share his analysis and predictions -- I don't think there are going to be kidnappings in the U.S., and massive violence -- I do share his conviction that we should utterly ignore what politicians say and, instead, focus on what they do and the history of what they have done.

UPDATE: I'm sort of mesmerized by dire predictions. Sort of like rubber-necking on the highway passing a scene of an accident. Here's Celente on Glenn Beck, making the case libertarians and small government conservatives have been trying to make. Listen carefully: You can't spend your way out of an economic problem. You can only produce your way out of an economic problem. And to add what will seem obvious to just a few: The government can only move wealth around, it cannot produce wealth. If you accept those premises, then you'll come to this conclusion -- the government should do less, and get off the backs of entrepreneurs and market actors. Watch Celente:

Since I didn't know anything about Celente, I was busy looking to see what his track record was like. It looks like it's been pretty good. Here's a video of Celente making predictions in the past, and a little bit more about what will happen:

Posted by P.M. Jaworski on February 13, 2009 in Economic freedom | Permalink


"The ship is going down, but doesn't the band sound good?" Now there's an accurate comparison.

His predictions on crime might be accurate as well. People's attitude toward unruly immigrants will likely shift from annoyance, to outright anger. There'll be a backlash like only a white population can muster. We have a gene that's become dormant after decades of easy living.

When the "Okies" headed for California during the dustbowl, there were terrible incidents of persecution. Vigilantes set up roadblocks, with the full support of local police. When people have nothing, they have nothing to lose.

My first boss, a WW2 vet and depression survivor, told a story about coming home from Ontario to join the army. He and his brother had $100, but decided to ride in boxcars to save money. The other "passengers" could see they were too well fed to be broke, and made for a very dangerous trip. They made it unscathed because of their tough upbringing, but how well will a bunch of softies like us do in that situation?

One thing that puzzles me, though. Why did oil prices spike, just before the collapse? Could someone explain this one?

Posted by: dp | 2009-02-13 10:54:58 AM

According to the Austrian Business Cycle Theory, boom-busts are caused by central banks' manipulation of the interest rate and credit supply.

After the dot-com bust, caused by low interest rates throughout the 90's (though to be fair, we saw some pretty spectacular private stupidity during this boom as well), Alan Greenspan responded by cutting interest rates to unprecedentedly low levels.

This naturally fueled another boom, which was present in housing, numerous financial instruments, and oil, among other things.

When the house of cards fell down, naturally the Fed responded by cutting interest rates even lower than last time - except this time we had practically no room above zero, we're involved in two unwinnable wars, the national debt is past 10 billion dollars, and most of the rest of the world tanked at the same time.

Of course, when I say "we" here I actually mean the Yanks (Between Harper and Obama it's easy to get the two mixed up.) -I'm- Canadian and thrilled to be so.

Posted by: Andrew P | 2009-02-13 11:35:35 AM

You cannot predict the future, you can only prepare for it. - Epsilon Hax

Posted by: epsilon | 2009-02-13 2:24:26 PM

Regarding the statement that the government cannot create wealth: it can print money. Given an economy with a wealth of a nominal $100, if the government prints enough to put $200 into the economy with the wealth remaining the same, then all prices are doubled. That's inflation.
The stimulus and low interest rates are attempts to get people buying so as to "move wealth around". The inference is that prices and costs will fall thus indicating a deflationary period. But people will see that the extra money in the system - from as example the "stimulus" - eventually will make prices rise, so people will want to buy before prices go up. Hyper inflation will follow.

Posted by: dewp | 2009-02-15 11:19:56 PM

Omg cash is king now and then
Cash will be trash. What to do
Can't put it all into gold

Posted by: george gonads | 2009-02-19 7:37:18 PM

Omg cash is king now and then
Cash will be trash. What to do
Can't put it all into gold

Posted by: george gonads | 2009-02-19 7:38:35 PM

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