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Wednesday, December 10, 2008

What really happened in Quebec (UPDATED)

David over at Antagoniste pulled together the numbers from the 2007 and 2008 Quebec elections, respectively, and made an interesting discovery.

The supposed surge of PQ voters? Mythical: the PQ had over 85,000 fewer votes in 2008. UPDATE: Turns out David switched the ADQ and PQ numbers for 2007, so the PQ actaully gained less than 15,000 votes, but that's still an increase of less than 1.5%. To quote Max Schrek (Batman Returns): "That's not growth; that's a mild swelling!"

Jean Charest's big combeack? Hardly: The Quebec Liberals added less than 50,000 votes to their totals this time.

Put together, the big establishment parties in Quebec earned 35,000 fewer votes gained less than 65,000 votes between them from what were historic lows in 2007 (at least for the PQ).

So what happened? The ADQ numbers collapsed, more than half the ADQ vote vanished, a loss of nearly 600,000 700,000 votes. Given that voter turnout also plummeted, these voters didn't go anywhere else; they just stayed home.

Sadly, I'm guessing hardly anyone in Canadian MSM (or even the blogosphere) will be intelligent enough to even note this, let alone ask why it happened.

On the plus side, here at the Shotgun, not only was the question asked, but it was answered too.

Posted by D.J. McGuire on December 10, 2008 in Canadian Provincial Politics | Permalink

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Comments

So the parties of the left gained votes, the ADQ lost votes, and the media reported as much, but they're biased for doing so? Right...

More people stayed home, so they must have been ADQ voters, yet the other parties gained votes... Logic is not working out for yah...

Stop being partisan.

Posted by: Robert Seymour | 2008-12-10 1:44:10 PM


Oups...

My mistake, I corrected the graph on my original post.

But like you pointed out, the conclusion stays the same: PQ and PLQ gather the same number of vote and the ADQ plummet, presumably because of abstentionist.

Posted by: David Gagnon | 2008-12-10 8:04:12 PM



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