The Shotgun Blog
Friday, November 28, 2008
So what do Jean and Pauline think about their cousins getting married?
We interrupt this ongoing series of posts about the long, slow decline of the CCP with the latest news from Canada that, well, almost completely distracted me from the long, slow decline of the CCP.
The idea that the Liberals, NDP, and Bloc would try to cobble a coalition together is absolutely fascinating to me, and with all due respect to Hugh MacIntyre, I think it could happen, especially if Canada's version of the "big beasts" are involved (National Post).
In the end, however, if this little scheme falls apart, it won't be the NDP or the Liberals that destroy it, but the Bloc.
Remember D.J. McGuire's first and only rule about Canadian politics: It's all about Quebec.
Quebec, lest you have forgotten, is in the midst of a provincial election campaign, one that seems to be a two-party race between the Libs and the PQ, with the center-right ADQ well back in third. However, the entire PQ renaissance of the last 20 years (and the Bloc's existence past, say, 1994) has been anger at the Liberals in some form or another.
What would happen to the PQ francophone vote if the Bloc - literally, in the minds of most francophones - makes a deal with the devil? Conversely, how happy will Quebec Liberals be if their leader (whoever it is) governs while being propped up by separatists?
The latter will cause much hand-wringing, wailing, and nashing of teeth, but the former could drive hundreds of thousands of francophone voters back to Mario Dumont.
Now, the Bloc could decide that $800,000 is more important than all that (which is why I say it could still happen). However, all parties should be aware that the Conservatives are basically voting to defund themselves more than $10 million, more than any other party. Everyone else would literally vote themselves taxpayer dough.
If an election is forced, I wouldn't want to tell my constituents I forced another vote on them because I want them to pay for my campaign.
Meanwhile, if the opposition actually pulls the coalition thing off, the Conservatives can take the high road for the rest of the Parliament, while the country would wonder why the party that lost more votes than any other was rewarded with government, backed by a separatist party that had been the Liberals' mortal enemy for nearly a decade and a half.
The backlash could be amazingly swift, and it could start in Quebec on December 8 - which is why I think the Bloc will be the ones to buckle.
Don't be surprised if Pauline Marois suddenly demands every Bloc MP "come home" to campaign for her MNA candidates. If about 30 comply . . .
. . . remember, you heard it here first.
TrackBack URL for this entry:
Listed below are links to weblogs that reference So what do Jean and Pauline think about their cousins getting married?:
Whenever I hear of an unnatural coalition between old rivals, I think of Winston Churchill's comments about the Second English Civil War in the 1648-49.
“The Story of the Second English Civil War is short and simple. King, Lords and Commons, landlords, merchants, the City and the countryside, bishops and presbyters, the Scottish army, the Welsh people, and the English Fleet, all now turned against the New Model Army. The Army beat the lot!”
Harper can beat them if he keeps his forces together. I hope he does because no one wants those maniacs anywhere near power.
Posted by: Zebulon Pike | 2008-11-28 9:55:43 AM
Ottawa ... all scum all the time.
Posted by: John V | 2008-11-28 10:18:10 AM
Assuming the marriage wouldn't drive away the core (cull?) supporters of either party, the Liberals combined with the NDP could topple the Conservatives on their own without the bloc. The combined popular vote of those two is roughly a million votes more than the Conservatives, 44% vs 38%. Without the splitting that leverages the Conservatives to 46% of the seats, the Lefties, or whatever they would call themselves, could attain a majority. But you are correct that the battle would take place in Quebec because that would be Harper's best chance at increasing support, pulling votes from the bloc possibly in combination with leaning left to pull liberal-lites from the new whacko-left alliance.
Posted by: John Chittick | 2008-11-28 10:23:18 AM
The fact that the Liberals, NDP, and Bloc would try to cobble a coalition together is absolutely fascinating to me, and indicates there must be a strong reasons to do so, to DESPERATELY DRIVE OUT the HARPER DEMON OUT OF OTTAWA
Sadly many in Alberta too NOW DO jump-to-conclusions-make-opinions-before-hearing-all-of-the-facts too.
How many times in the last decade as we seem to know too often has the news media supported a specific candidate who next had clearly turned out to be a really bad choice? and why was that?
Are they the news media, news reporters now still really the same even now like many of us, basically, as well? Blind, they do not have all the facts before them honestly presented and viewed now too?
Too many of us still wrongfully jump to conclusions, make biased, unsound opinions, note this even the news reporters and news media now included, all made before we now have even heard all of the facts, and this is till really unacceptable, very, very dangerous too.. such an approach it can be really harmful.
Here related is something I have known long time before, most people are like dumb sheep, they are too easily, too often swayed by bad politicians lies. And too many of us we seem to all agree that most politicians are the same nearly these days, they are all liars who tell us what we want to hear but do not keep their promises generally next anyway now.
Tory minority in jeopardy as opposition talks coalition Globe and Mail - Stephen Harper’s six-week-old minority government is already in danger of falling, with the Liberals warning that the Prime Minister has four days to change “unacceptable” elements of yesterday’s economic fiscal package.
Opposition set for all-out war Edmonton Sun
Wrong time to cut party funding National Post
Vancouver Sun - Toronto Star - CTV.ca - Ottawa Citizen
all 368 news articles » Langue : Français »
As usual it seems the Tories abuse their position and try to act like a majority government while in fact they are a minority government, nothing in reality has changed it seems, PM Stephen Harper and his crowd are the same old thugs, bullies, wrongfully disrespectful of others and other rights fooling few people in the process of what they are really like still too
The new Conservative party was elected cause they said they were going to be better than the other political parties, more honest, decent, etc, and in this regard they became the biggest liars themselves, they next became the bullies, thugs, oppressors, promise breakers and much more, showing to us all that they were really wolves in sheep clothing, their clearly apparent bad acts do not deny who they really are still too… bad people.
No one in his right mind can ever think, believe this are the acts of a genuine professing Christian , more likely acts typical of the Christian Missionary Alliance church, but not those of Jesus Christ. Jesus would have shown consideration for the poor people firstly, humbly too, now too and not be self centered, boastful, proud like the Conservatives
You cannot hide for long what you really are, Stephen Harper and his thugs included..
Merely let is think back to the final days of the election campaign, when Prime Minister Stephen Harper declared that the government had already done what was needed, that Canada was better off than the United States and that deficit financing was out of the question. And after the lection the same government uses words such as “recession,” and will run a deficit. Mr. Harper even warns about remembering the lessons of the Great Depression. How the same liar sings a different tune before and after the lection, but that has been so common of him.
Posted by: thenonconformer | 2008-11-28 10:56:47 AM
Aside from new pavement projects type politics, 'rolling out a giant stimulus pkg' before we see how much or how little Obama does for the status quo auto, steel and financial sectors, it would truly only be "politicing" here in Canada. Trying to effect any lasting benefit under the 'unilateral' approach some groups are now bleating about.....would be as effective as Canada implementing the Kyoto Protocal to eliminate Canada's 2% share....while China ignores Kyoto by opening a new coal-fired power plant every 5-6 days!!! To me that is how effective a Cdn stimulus plan would be right now.
Pull. Their. Taxpayer funding.
Posted by: Edward Bear | 2008-11-28 12:15:15 PM
The comments to this entry are closed.