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Tuesday, October 07, 2008
Watching the polls
I know, I know. The only poll that matters is the one a week from today. But things are getting interesting: the CPAC-Nanos numbers today are 34 - 31 for Tories - Grits. That's getting awfully close.
I'll admit it, I'm shocked. A week or two ago I was sure that the CPC had their majority locked up, but I guess they're dealing with their own version of the global crisis.
I have a really hard time believing that, had the Conservatives released a platform earlier, they'd be hit this hard by the economic downturn. I appreciate that Harper's been pushing low spending and stay-the-course fiscal caution, but it doesn't seem out of step with the party's political style to go beyond that, and I'm surprised they haven't. Maybe I'm wrong, but from a political standpoint it seems logical that as people start worrying about the economy they want to hear a comprehensive plan.
Posted by Janet Neilson on October 7, 2008 | Permalink
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Their plan is up. Just starting to read it.
http://www.conservative.ca/media/20081007-Platform-e.pdf
Posted by: K Stricker | 2008-10-07 12:41:01 PM
My eyesight must be getting worse because I didn't see anything in the Conservative platform about the Human Rights Commissions. Where did Ezra put this topic?
Posted by: Cory D. Schreyer | 2008-10-07 1:09:11 PM
Janet,
Personally, I find it hard to understand what the most 'swingy' voters respond to at election time. But tell me this: Do you thing it REALLY matters whether the Conservatives or the Liberals win? I mean, The Cons have balanced the budget while in power and the Libs did that for years before, so that has pretty much become an inviolable principle of budgeting. When it comes to spending, Harper has INCREASED it from the Lib years, and continues to promise more. So there is no reason to think that either party would reduce spending at all.
On social issues, there is not a lot of a chance of any big changes without a majority, which seems quite unlikely. The Libs are more likely to decriminalize pot, the Cons are more likely to introduce abortion restrictions. So from a liberty POV, the Libs look better, but not really much better since neither change is all that likely.
On free speech, I don't see section 13 of the CHRA being eliminated by either of them, despite the efforts of (Liberal) Keith Martin and the public support for the idea by a handful of (mostly Consevative) MPs.
On foreign affairs, I don't think either party is going to be any different on the length of the Afganistan committment, since public support is pretty low for it and by 2011 it probably will be even lower.
So while it might be interesting to see how the red team and the blue team fare, I can't see the next few years of Canadian government being any different regardless of who wins. In a way it makes it more fun to watch the election unfold. Especially when the most partisan lunatics on all sides start to melt down as we get to election day.
Posted by: Fact Check | 2008-10-07 1:12:28 PM
Having looked at the polls today, I'd have to say that a Dion government with Jack Layton holding the balance of power is a real possibility. Momentum is in Dion's favour now, and there's only a week to go.
If that scenario doesn't tank the stock market, I don't know what will.
Harper spent most of the campaign denying that he's a conservative and agreeing with every major point of principle that his enemies put forward. His team chose to focus on Dion's ineptness as opposed to his ideas. Now they'll pay for their mistakes.
The MSM, true to form, did their part to throw so much mud that no one could tell where the PM was anymore.
Posted by: Dennis | 2008-10-07 1:50:09 PM
This is time time where we watch and see where the "panic" vote goes. Most people have made up their minds but I'm sure there is still about 20% that haven't really decided and now will likely go Liberal or NDP. In any case, a minority government of whatever party during a recession will be interesting to see.
Posted by: Tim Trudeau | 2008-10-07 2:23:10 PM
We have to realize Harper is fighting not only four Lefty Parties but the entire MSM as well. He hasn't got a chance. The media with their constant meddling, favouring Liberals and anybody but Conservatives, will decide this election.
Any third world dictatorship would be happy to have the services of the media in this so-called Democratic country. They are robbing us of good government because they benefit from having Liberals in power.
Harper was not smart to make cuts to the Arts during an election, it gave them an opportunity to rail against Conservatives and get Media exposure. It all adds up.
Posted by: Liz J | 2008-10-07 2:57:59 PM
I agree completely with Liz J there is absolutely no chance of a fair election in this country. The MSM will never allow that to happen... I have never heard the MSM ever say anything positive about the PM and the Conservatives, it doesn't matter what they do or say the MSM will attack and spin the negative. Canadas MSM are totally and completely corrupt and in the pocket of the Liberals and the left in general. The one off debate format designed by the media is a perfect example of the constant manipulation that goes on during an election by the MSM. The MSM are lazy corrupt idealogues just like their comrades in the Liberals, NDP, and Bloc party's, and the Conservatives made a huge mistake in not taking on the media and their obvious bias right from the start of this election. Good governance is not enough for the PM and the Conservatives, and they should of been aware of this and had a plan to fight back against the constant stream of attacks and negative campaigning by the MSM.
Posted by: Sean | 2008-10-07 5:53:16 PM
Nanos has shown, in general, a pronounced Liberal tilt.
Though, it is very concerning. Frankly, the Conservatives haven't run the right sort of campaign - the campaign I advised them to run. They needed to go to war - instead they went to a picnic.
I thought that Dion was so terrible that they couldn't possibly blow this one. I should have forgotten that no one ever went broke banking on the stupidity of so many of the people in this country.
Harper has to go nuclear. He has to paint Dion as being totally unfit to lead the country. He has to smash him. Instead he held back - perhaps for too long.
Posted by: Adam Yoshida | 2008-10-07 6:58:07 PM
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