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Wednesday, October 15, 2008
This one will last a while
My take on what happened on election night (at least where Communist China is concerned) is here.
I must confessed that I'm surprised at the ho-hum reaction of it all. Fact is, Stephen Harper greatly strengthened his position last night. Before the election, he had fewer MPs than the Liberals and NDP put together; now he has an edge of more than two dozen MPs.
I think the confusion comes from the Bloc vote. Too many pundits are expecting that the Bloc can just deliver these MPs into a "progressive" coalition based on the campaign. Maybe Dion and Layton can have that fantasy, but Duceppe knows better.
It wasn't the hip, urban left that elected all those Blocquistes - they went for the NDP and actually kept the BQ under 40% of the Quebec vote. It was the rural and suburban voters in Quebec who have been the Bloc's base for 20 years. They remain for three reasons (a) the Liberals nauseate them, (b) the Conservatives make them uncomfortable, and (c) everyone knows the Bloc will never exercise any real power.
If these Bloc voters wanted Stephane Dion to be Prime Minister (or any Liberal, for that matter), they would have voted Liberal. They didn't. Whatever they thought of Harper, they chose not to support his only real rival for power (Dion) and once again effectively abstained from the national discussion.
Personally, I thought more of them would vote Conservative than actually did, but the idea that Duceppe can hand over this generally conservative group of voters to the left (let alone a left run by Stephane Dion) is laughable at best. That would force these voters to choose between the Liberals and the Conservatives, the one choice the Bloc has been trying to stop these voters from making for two decades.
Duceppe himself may be a center-left guy, as are most of his MPs. But his voters aren't, and he risks losing them if he tries to deliver their MPs to a coalition with a party that was just rejected by 75% of his province's electorate.
It's not happening, meaning Harper now has a much freer hand - not as free as with a majority, but much freer than he had before last night.
Posted by D.J. McGuire on October 15, 2008 in Canadian Politics | Permalink
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Comments
Won't we still have the October 09 election as planned?
Posted by: Pete | 2008-10-15 11:09:03 AM
"and (c) everyone knows the Bloc will never exercise any real power."
The Bloc is what assures Québec's voice, decides if a hurtful government stays in power and what keeps the federal parties in check. If this is not power for you, it is the whole world for us.
The Bloc is there to stay and only Conservatives and Liberals make the error of thinking they're not.
Posted by: Marc | 2008-10-15 1:03:35 PM
After giving Quebec everything that they asked for in the past three years, Harper is spurned by the Quebec electorate. I wonder if he will be as generous since he now knows that their votes are too expensive politically.
Posted by: Gus | 2008-10-15 3:53:12 PM
I dont understand how quebecers are so self righteous that they choose to vote for a party designed solely to seperate from the rest of Canada.
Partners in a united Canada? Hardly. Unique? No more so than any group. Overrepresented? Totally.
Time for Quebec to take a real look at their place within Canada.
Posted by: Q | 2008-10-15 4:03:25 PM
The CPC needs to move NOW to add ridings in the west where Canadians are underrepresented. It would have the net effect of minimizing Quebec's seemingly untouchable position within confederation. And Toronto's as well.
Do it NOW Mr. Harper. You now know that Quebec cannot be counted upon to do what is right for all Canadians, that the cost of their support is too high. If you can't beat 'em, dilute 'em.
Posted by: Dave Tracey | 2008-10-15 5:18:28 PM
The Bloc is what assures Québec's voice, decides if a hurtful government stays in power and what keeps the federal parties in check.
Posted by: Marc | 15-Oct-08 1:03:35 PM
So what did the Bloc accomplish this time? PMSH had the right idea when he mentioned that the Bloc had accomplished nothing for Quebecers in 18 years. I think he should have followed with more of the same. Unfortunately, he dropped the issue, and that gave the Bloc a reprieve.
Like I once wrote, the Bloc is only there (in Ottawa) to try to prove that federalism doesn't work. Contrary to what Marc says, the Bloc's strategy is to ensure that Quebec's voice is not heeded, so they can go back to Quebecers and say: "See? We told you so. Independence is the only way to go."
By the way, what mention of independence (or sovereignty)was raised by the Bloc in this election campaign? Reminds me that the only way the Parti Quebecois managed to get elected many years ago in Quebec, was by setting aside (hiding) their sovereignty agenda. The slogan was: "Vote for a 'good' government." Quebec separatists found out long ago that that if they want to better their chances of getting elected, they had better shut up about separation. Why? Simple; a majority of Quebecers still don't want anything to do with separation.
Posted by: Nothing New Under the Sun | 2008-10-15 7:15:46 PM
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