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Friday, August 29, 2008

Now this is what we call irony

On the day John McCain picks Alaska Governor Sarah "hockey mom" Palin as his running mate, the American blogger sails into the wind by blogging about - Canada's upcoming election.

I'm fairly certain Canada will have an election now, and here's why: the latest CROP poll put the Conservatives ahead of the Bloc Quebecois in La Belle Province (Cyberpresse  - in French - and Paul Wells - not in French).  This would be the first poll I have ever seen (and I've been following them for about 10 years) that has anyone besides the Bloc in first place (although the Chretien Liberals did win the popular vote there in 2000).   Harper will simply be following D.J. McGuire's one and only law of Canadian politics: It's all about Quebec.

Breaking the numbers down (according to Wellsy) the Conservatives basically own Quebec City, are withing striking distance of the Bloc in the rural areas and - get this - are in a three-way stat ties with the Grits and the Bloc in the Montreal area.

Given the Libs' strength on the west side of Montreal isle and the Bloc's strength on the east side, that basically means the Conservatives could actually win some seats in the suburbs over there.

SH has a historic opportunity to establish the Tories as the lead party - not just the lead federalist party, the lead party period - in the Q.  Moreover, as the campaign progresses and word spreads of the Conservative position, federalist-first voters in Quebec and Ontario will switch over (especially in said rural Quebec ridings).

Cynics would call this crass opportunism.  Non-cynics (and count me among them on this) would say it's a historic chance to knock the Bloc out of the top spot in Quebec and put it on the fast track to oblivion.  Either way, even if he doesn't get a majority out of this, Harper can come away with a much stronger minority at worst (assuming the campaign goes alright) and could turn Quebec into the Conservatives' eastern base.

He'd be a fool to pass this up, and Stephen Harper is no fool. 

Game on.

Posted by D.J. McGuire on August 29, 2008 in Canadian Conservative Politics, Canadian Politics, Canadian Provincial Politics | Permalink


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Heh, there's definitely some irony here. A Canadian blogger comes in with a post on the American election, and the American blogger comes in with a post on the Canadian one.



Posted by: Terrence Watson | 2008-08-29 10:09:41 AM

Duceppe meet Harper this morning to tell him he dosent support his government.
Let's call the elections.

Posted by: Marc | 2008-08-29 10:43:54 AM

I spoke with a Conservative MP in Calgary yesterday.
He says they are definately getting ready for an election.

Posted by: JC | 2008-08-29 11:57:38 AM

Duceppe meet Harper this morning to tell him he dosent support his government.
Posted by: Marc | 29-Aug-08 10:43:54 AM

Duceppe the blockhead doesn't support the government. Where's the news in that?

Posted by: The Stig | 2008-08-29 12:03:53 PM

There is one flaw with your logic. ONTARIO.

Polls show that Ontarions just don't like the CPC and their support there is less than at last election time.

So any gains in PQ could very well be lost in Ontario, no?

Posted by: Faramir | 2008-08-29 1:16:01 PM

Actually, Faramir, I think you've cast your net a little wide. Rural Ontarians support the CPC in respectable numbers. Only Torontonians and "Golden Horseshoe" voters do not. And since these people are responsible for both David Miller and Dalton McGuinty, Harper may have simply concluded that any attempt to reason with these people is a waste of time. Would YOU expect sense from a crowd that voted for David Miller--twice?

Posted by: Shane Matthews | 2008-08-29 1:24:40 PM

Baracks Speech was great democratic red meat. Im sure he spoke to the hearts and minds of hillarys people. By the way did anyone hear Chris matthews of msnbc? He basically endorsed barack obama on air. Whats up w that? Anyone who thinks NBC is unbiased is smoking large amounts of crack. Read that in the http://fargpophantom.com
Lets see what the Goverment Channel has to say at FOX News tonight. Looks like a successful Speech and will prove to be a strong force of change.

Your Loving Neighbor in North Dakota

Posted by: jim | 2008-08-29 1:43:39 PM

@ Stig,
Art-peur need an ally in this process and, this time, The Bloc will not fulfill this role. Does that sounds like a political party fearing the lost of seats to you ?
If the Art-peur government think they can win seats in Québec based on random polls, call the elections. I cannot ask for a better senario.

Posted by: Marc | 2008-08-29 2:16:55 PM

Da Bloc is dead.

They will lose at least 25 seats.

Dion does not want to meet with Harper until after the byelections.

Why has he not brought the government down earlier?

Because the Liberal Party has no money.

Da Liberal Party is also dead.

Posted by: set you free | 2008-08-29 4:02:46 PM

"set you free"

Now this is what we call irony.

Posted by: Marc | 2008-08-29 4:08:50 PM

No...now this is what we call destiny.

Posted by: prairie dog | 2008-08-30 4:25:26 AM

For those who think a conservative majority will solve the problems facing this nation....well....you've been smelling your own partisan farts far too long.Remember Mulroney?

Also, for those who think the sleazy LPC is on it's deathbed, with a pro-left media fully entrenched you best remember that we are only one conservative gaff away from a Dion minority.
Harper claims he needs a new mandate and he is willing to waste near a half-billion dollars of OUR money to create one.
I look at it this way. He is currently our dutifully elected leader and has many many months left in his term.THAT is his f*cking mandate.

As long as we have politicians who make important decisions based on their party's fortunes, not the country's, we are doomed to diddle our society into oblivion.
CPC, LPC, the differences are almost daily being demonstrated to be mainly window-dressing.

Wake up to it.

Posted by: Canadian Observer | 2008-08-30 11:34:24 AM

If the differences between the parties are merely window-dressing, CO, then explain how it is that the CPC managed to get more accomplished in a two-year minority than many LPC-dominated majorities lasting more than twice as long.

Frankly, I've almost gotten to the point where I think what Torontonians vote for is exactly what the country doesn't need. Their poor taste in leaders, so glaringly highlighted in their choice of mayor and premier, does not incline one to repose trust in their choice of prime minister.

Posted by: Shane Matthews | 2008-08-30 11:47:52 AM

Of course, Harper looks good against the previous LPC governments. Who wouldn't? And of course he has passed some legislation, he faces an utterly impotent opposition.
But why set the bar soooo damn low? Why be content with 'better than the libs'?
In my opinion, asking someone to perform better than the LPC isn't asking very damn much of them.

Shane, do you see the flaw in your POV now?

Partisan politics is killing democracy.

Posted by: Canadian Observer | 2008-08-30 3:23:30 PM

Diebold accidentally releases election results:


Posted by: JC | 2008-08-31 7:50:30 AM

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