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Thursday, May 01, 2008
The Comeback Gal?
We now have a poll that puts Hillary ahead in Obama's firewall state: North Carolina.
The Democrats have been facing a tremendous dilemma: do they support the candidate with the most pledged delegates and actual votes (Obama)? Or the one who is more electable (Clinton), even at the risk of defying the will oftheir members? This dilemma was based on the assumption that Obama would win more votes than Clinton in the states where both were on the ballot (i.e., every state except Michigan, but including Florida). If Obama wins North Carolina, he should be able to ride out the rest of the calendar (all Clinton-friendly states except for Oregon and possibly Montana).
If Clinton wins North Carolina, though, all bets are off. She could very well end up with more actual votes than he does, in which case her argument becomes far more compelling no matter what the pledged delegate count is.
I'm guessing the winner of the North Carolina primary will be the Democratic nominee - which must be a painful irony to that state's one-term Senator (and last Democrat to leave the Presidential race): John Edwards.
Posted by D.J. McGuire on May 1, 2008 in International Politics | Permalink
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Comments
Let's see, why don't we let the Yankees go to the World Series, because they have a better chance of winning, even though Boston won the Division. GIVE ME A BREAK!!!
Posted by: Don Hannaford | 2008-05-01 10:40:48 AM
"Now, IA’s Matt Towery did note that part of this was a drift of African-American voters away from Obama, which may or may not materialize on Primary Day."
It's not what he said.
"InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery noted: “The shift has come almost entirely from **white voters** age 45 and over. There was a small drift of African-Americans back towards Clinton, but not so significant as to establish any trend."
No trend for blacks but definitely middle-aged white folks are breaking for Clinton. The question is how large is that demographic?
"The results were:
Hillary Clinton: 44%
Barack Obama: 42%
Undecided: 14%"
Since Ohio, Undecideds are breaking for Clinton.
"New Jersey: undecided voters broke 62% for Clinton while Ohio undecideds broke 79% for Clinton."
MSNBC Exit polls show those that decided within the last three days in Pennsylvania were 18% of the vote and broke for Clinton 59/41.
Posted by: DJ | 2008-05-01 4:10:46 PM
Way to keep'um honest DJ.
I go to the American blogs all the time.
I've always known the Yankees were ignorant of other cultures but it surprises me how ignorant the White Americans been about what Black Americans think about White Americans.
Some have been stating that this will set race relations back decades.
Did they really think that the festering Black opinion about White Americans and America in general was progress?
I think they're going to have to ponder where they were and how to get to where they want to be now that they really know where they are.
Posted by: Speller | 2008-05-01 4:20:41 PM
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