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Friday, March 28, 2008

How Long Does Dion Have Left?

I'm pretty sure that we've reached the endgame for M. Dion now. When the leader's deputy is leaking against him and the leader is practically begging for people on his home turf to stop undermining him, the game is about over.

Frankly, the fact is that Dion has no chance in a General Election. He'd start out behind and then he'd fall further and further back. He's going to lose in Quebec and he can't really communicate in the other official language, so that'd be the end of that. The Tories could run attack ads consisting entirely of his horribly mangled English.

There's one major obstacle in the way - Dion's leadership debts. He still owes hundreds of thousands of dollars and, if he's turfed from the leadership, he'll have no way to pay them. Indeed, if Dion can't retain the leadership, there's a pretty good chance that he'd end up personally broke.

I said, two years ago when this race began, that the Liberals would pick Dion because he was the only Francophone in the race and the only plausible candidate who didn't offend a large part of the Liberal base. The problem is that the idea of Dion has proven to be much better than the reality. I can't recall as inept a leader of one of the major parties.

So, here's what to watch for.

First - watch for Dion to get a truly golden parachute. It's the only way to make this happen. The Liberal's don't have the money - and aren't going to be able to raise it - to pay off Dion's debts. So they're going to have to turn to some of their friends in the private sector for help here.

Second, despite his credible performance as deputy leader, I wouldn't count on Ignatieff to just jump into place. The Liberals believe that they have a chance now - certainly they must given that the odds now are that the next election won't be until the fixed date in late 2009.

Posted by Adam T. Yoshida on March 28, 2008 in Canadian Politics | Permalink

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Comments

Ms. Chantal Hebert Red Star refers to Citoyen Dion as "Dead Man Walking" Dion's first problem is that nobody told him the principal purpose of the Liberal Party of Canada: which is "winning elections'In the
real Liberal Party, intellectual perspectives of issues or related naval gazing ain't considered
important. Dion has been doomed since the first moment he was chosen "Leader" by Muslims and Homosexuals who hjacked the venerable Party.Next
Leader will noted more or less socialist be Robert Rae. Harper can defeat Rae. MacLeod

Posted by: Jack Macleod | 2008-03-28 7:42:39 AM


Reading comments about Citoyen Dion in the MSM and all the Thinkers are guessing about the little Fart's future -he ain't got no future as a Politician in the old Dominion. What the Toronto and Media forget is that the long established Liberal Party in the Atlantic Region in particular is comprised of long time traditional Liberal families
who in Nova Scotia for instance detest Quebec just for starters.The Nova Scotia Liberal Party forced a sitting Premier Saint (Dr.) John Savage MD to resign because he refused to support Liberal Party Patronage strategies. I knew him well, a great Doctor and a good man,but I told him at a Cocktail Party one evening -when your crusade is over,all these Liberals will still be here, but you sir will be, gone -you will vanish,Liberal politicians mostly are expendable. Jeez Dion might have to serve in the French Army. - Macleod

Posted by: Jack Macleod | 2008-03-28 9:15:20 AM


"muslims and homosexuals"??
anyway-
dion appears to be delusional about his leadership ability and electability--the guys an embarrasment to his party and needs to go.
the libs might as well force an election(which they will lose-- to another conservative minority), IF this is the only way to get a new leader.

Posted by: godsteeth | 2008-03-28 9:26:58 AM


Frankly, I hope that Dion maintains leadership of the Liberal party of Canada. He is generally unliked and a weak leader - all the better to contrast the true leadership and credibility of Stephen Harper and the Conservatives.

Posted by: M | 2008-03-28 9:51:42 AM


We campaigned against Bob the Emperor in Ontario -Jeez he almost put Ontario out of Business.I agree
with Karol Harper is heading towards another Minority -but will be there as PM with a very loyal and competent Caucus long enough to finally sink what's left of the once mighty Red Machine.The Red Machine is dominated by former flunkies and wanabe's
who get MSM support for devious reasons, mostly focused on destroying the Harper Government -but Harper appears popular with most Canadians. Here in the Picture Province a major center for the Canadian Army,there is no question of PM Harper's popularity with Canadian Soldiers. Macleod

Posted by: Jack Macleod | 2008-03-28 9:52:35 AM


If Rae is the man for the Liberals, where will his friend, former friend, nemesis, whatever, Iggy fit into the grand scheme of things?

They're all singing Dion's praises but they're acting is very poor. Dion's King-maker Kennedy is hiding somewhere because he can't defend the indefensible.
They're in a fine mess, let them waller in it.

Harper should be able to pull a larger minority or even a small majority next time around in spite of the Liberal/Left MSM and their friends like Bluster Butt Danny Williams who will have no effect. The rest of Canada do not take kindly to those who live on the dole for years and refuse to play the equalization game when their fortunes change.

I can envision Buffalo Bob's cute little smile as Emperor in the Toronto Gay Pride parade flanked by Natures mistakes in leather thongs and assorted gear.

Posted by: Liz J | 2008-03-28 11:09:26 AM


M:

I agree, but I fear the day that the Corporations who control the Liebral/Dipper/Green alliance will realize that Dion isn't worth it and replace him with someone who can threaten Harper. (My God, if they haven't realize that yet, will it ever happen?)

Harper's the best PM in over a decade. He actually makes decisions and stands by them. I hope he stays in office for many years to come, paying off the debt, rebuilding the military, improving social services, genuinely improving Canada's image abroad and in the US. He's well on his way.

Posted by: Zebulon Pike | 2008-03-28 11:20:15 AM


Dion has failed miserably on all counts. However, like most academics (I am not sure he qualifies, but some say he does) he has a huge ego.

He will stay in as long as possible to try to salvage his reputation.

The Liberals will have to stuff his body in a trunk if they really want to get rid to that gift the CPC.

Posted by: John West | 2008-03-28 12:53:43 PM


What reputation is that.Teaching at the University of Moncton Community College don't give ya much of a Reputation. How can one major in Politcal Science without being fully fluent in English. Dion's claim in the Liberal Part is through his mentor Chretien and his late Father's association and friendship with P.Et Trudeau Former Professor of Law and professional politician. I'm not sure Ignatieff will seek the leadership of a Party which is obviously sinking. MacLeod

Posted by: Jack Macleod | 2008-03-28 1:50:49 PM


What reputation is that.Teaching at the University of Moncton Community College don't give ya much of a Reputation.
Posted by: Jack Macleod | 28-Mar-08 1:50:49 PM

Didn't he also teach at the University of Montreal for 12 years? Just wondering.

Posted by: The Stig | 2008-03-28 1:59:01 PM


Are their guns registered? If so, then there's no problem because registered guns can't kill innocent people. Yes I am being sarcastic.

Posted by: Zebulon Pike | 2008-03-28 3:00:27 PM


Wonder if Rae would be happy to take bone marrow from a sexually active gay cruiser solely on his strong feelings against discrimination shtick. What a bone-headed thought process from someone who aspires to be Prime Minister. God help Canada should they make the mistake of going for a person with such dangerous ideology.

Has he forgotten about how devastating the HepC tragedy was?

When it comes to human rights any sane person would realize the safety of people's health trumps some diseased persons "right" to spread their diseases around.

Posted by: Liz J | 2008-03-28 4:41:55 PM


I agree with M.
Dion as the Liberal leader has become a huge asset for the Conservatives.
Is there anything any political party or media can slam Dion about that would be worse than what he or his party are currently doing to themselves?
Rather than continually going for Dion's jugular Conservatives should concentrate on appearing to be a less vindictive party to the Canadian public.
There is a risk of a bumbling,weak, incoherent Dion becoming a sympathetic figure if he's continually demeaned by the Conservatives.
Sit back,enjoy the show and allow the Liberals to do the blood -letting.
Having Rae and Ignatieff do the cutting will alienate the Liberals even further.
It's a win-win situation that the Conservatives must handle carefully.

Posted by: bocanut | 2008-03-29 11:52:51 AM


How Long Does Dion Have Left?

Well if he's been eating the governments recommended diet, he's due for a heart attack, stroke or cancer soon. And then the Libs can get all teary about a great man having to step down for health reasons.

Posted by: JC | 2008-03-29 5:29:00 PM



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