The Shotgun Blog
Saturday, March 01, 2008
Angus Reid poll on Alberta Election 2008
Tory Fortunes Hinge on Voter Turnout as Alberta Prepares for Legislative Ballot
Despite his party’s lead, Alberta Premier has a negative momentum score.
[CALGARY – Feb. 29, 2008] - As the Alberta election campaign winds to a close, a new Angus Reid Strategies poll shows a contest that could tighten significantly, especially depending on turnout rates.
In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, Premier Ed Stelmach and the Progressive Conservative Party are leading Kevin Taft's Liberals by 15 percentage points (43% to 28%).
The same poll, however, shows that among Albertans who claim they are “absolutely certain” to vote on Monday, the gap between the PC’s and Liberals drops to nine percentage points (39% to 30%). In many senses, the fate of Premier Stelmach and his party will rest on turnout levels on Election Day.
» Among Decided Voters: PC 43%, Lib. 28%, NDP 13%, WA 10%, Grn. 7%
» Among Certain Voters: PC 39%, Lib. 30%, NDP 13%, WA 10%, Grn. 8%
» Momentum Scores: Stelmach -13, Taft +5, Mason +5, Read +1, Hinman +7
» Best Premier: Stelmach 30%, Taft 28%, Not sure 42%
» 52% say it is time for a change in government, 26% disagree, 22% are not sure
Posted by Matthew Johnston on March 1, 2008 | Permalink
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Albertans should be heads-up about their future - here is a link to an interesting development regarding a pretty big client. You should be using those royalties to better advantage. If you want to encourage something, it's better to use an incentive, rather than a punishment. It might be worth considering the set-up of a bonus fund, whereby companies which innovate (verified) to produce energy "better" get royalty money back.
I applaud Alberta for its courage to tackle its financial difficulties, and to make a silk purse for itself. I only lament that it wasn't infectious to the ROC. Rainy days are ahead, however, and it would be more prudent to plan accordingly.
Sorry -I'm new to blogging and I don't know how to make the above address linked.
Posted by: momathome | 2008-03-01 10:30:40 AM
Oh-all I had to do was hit post. Also, maybe I didn't really address the original post. Vote and vote well. Really lamentable that there are no good leaders anywhere, except maybe Czechoslovakia.
Posted by: momathome | 2008-03-01 10:36:45 AM
You had better Czech the name of that country again.
Posted by: Brent Weston | 2008-03-01 11:12:21 AM
Vote early and vote often they say. I'll be phoning in sick on Monday...the only real way to demonstrate my unhappiness with the PC lite now running this province.
Posted by: Markalta | 2008-03-01 1:55:12 PM
Hey, set you free, do you have a comment on this?
CALGARY - Premier Ed Stelmach says Calgary is the "Conservative heartland" of Alberta and he wants to keep his party's commanding grasp on the city.
Of course I'm voting Wildrose Alliance Party.
If there weren't a WAP candidate in my district I would stay home like Markalta.
The PC candidate here was Gary Mar but is now Teresa Woo-Paw.
Teresa Woo-Paw was Chair of the Calgary Board of Education which was so disfunctional that Lyle Oberg canned the entire board of trutees.
I assume you, set you free, might be considering casting a vote for the WAP.
After all, the leader of the WAP, Paul Hinman, was a farmer.
Posted by: Speller | 2008-03-01 3:52:44 PM
When the PC's called our house to ask us if the could count on our continued support, we told them we had torn up out PC cards and wouldn't be voting at all. Why? they asked....because the "Fair Share" Royalties grab was a socialist concept and we're not socialists. And now that the PC's are...we don't see any real difference between them and the Libs. The right is wrong and the left is stupid. The whole thing is dysfunctional on every level and I refuse to endorse it with my vote.
Posted by: JC | 2008-03-02 9:54:33 AM
Speller and JC:
Either one of you want to take a stab at this question?
How should roads, schools and hospitals be paid for?
Does the money magically appear or grow on trees?
The PC's royalty position is the least extreme of any of the established parties.
The LIbs say it's not enough, presumably the NDP would nationalze the oil industry.
As I've previously stated, farming is an honourable livelyhood that prepares a future political leader well in meeting and solving a variety of problems in a calm manner.
I would consider casting a vote for WAP is Himan had articulated how he would raise the required money needed for infrastructure programs.
I would agree Alberta currently spends way too much on redistribution and feeel-good programs, which are totally unnecessary in this booming economy in the land of opportunity.
Posted by: set you free | 2008-03-02 10:03:29 AM
I reject socialism and government theft on every level. So to answer....Private enterprise.
The government didn't "give" us anything. Quite the contrary in fact, anything we have, we have in spite of government not because of it. And yes farming is an honorable way of life and the lifeblood of all nations...lets get the government out of that too.
Posted by: JC | 2008-03-02 10:15:49 AM
Alberta fail to be a federal and provincial democracy. They don't
see the conservatives, as they truly are. A bunch of self serving,
persecuting, money hoarding, war mongers, planet killing, mutains,
The right is the right no matter what you call them Republicans
Conservatives they all stand together.
The Liberals, NDP, Green Party should form a coalition system to
get more left to centre thinking in government.
Posted by: Larry J. | 2008-03-02 10:21:11 AM
This poll shows that the Liberals are leading the Conservatives in Edmonton – 41% Liberal / 32% Conservative.
It also shows that in Central Alberta the Wildrose Alliance polls as high as 18%. The party is at 14% in Southern Alberta where leader Paul Hinman is the MLA for Cardston-Taber-Warner. Will Hinman win his own seat? He won last time by less than 200 votes, but he performed very well in the debates and is well respected.
Ironically, Hinman’s popularity among conservatives may help the Liberals in Lethbridge’s two city ridings according to pollster Faron Ellis.
“Faron Ellis, whose earlier polling has shown the Liberals and Conservatives in a "dead heat" in the two southern city ridings, says Hinman could play a role in deciding who will win the ridings of Lethbridge East and Lethbridge West by splitting the conservative vote.” Edmonton Journal.
Does anyone have any insight into how Link Byfield’s campaign is doing?
What about Craig Chandler’s independent candidacy in Calgary Egmont? Chandler claims his internal polling shows him leading.
Posted by: Matthew Johnston | 2008-03-02 10:45:04 AM
Hey Larry: The PC's in Alberta have moved too far left for me, no need to join forces between the other socialist parties...just vote PC to get your fill of left wing policies.
Set: What do you think of the PC's intrusive no-smoking policies and their silence on the AHRC section 3 issue?
Posted by: Markalta | 2008-03-02 7:51:35 PM
When the PC's called our house to ask us if the could count on our continued support, we told them we had torn up out PC cards and wouldn't be voting at all.
Hell, all I got was a recorded message from my MLA, Cindy Ady, to come out and vote. Must have been too scared to actually talk to a constituent. talk about elitist, "don't touch me" government. I voted WAP, 12 days ago on a special ballot. Screw the consliberals.
Posted by: jt | 2008-03-02 9:14:16 PM
Thanks for your response.
I assume then that you believe the construction of roads, schools and hospitals is best done by the private sector.
Can you give me examples of where this has been successfully done?
For example, how many miles of private-sector roads has been built by Suncor and Syncruda? Perhaps you'd have some insight into how much of either company's annual budget goes toward building schools for their employees. Or how many tens of dollars is spent by, oh, Starbuck's coffee on construction and staffing of hospitals.
Posted by: set you free | 2008-03-02 11:16:08 PM
Nothing of the sort will happen as long as we have a fascist system. When the government makes itself both partner and banker in every form of private business we have, there can be no examples of "Private" enterprise to give.
However it wasn't always like that was it? And we had roads and hospitals and schools prior to fascism. Prior to tax rape.
Posted by: JC | 2008-03-03 6:47:44 AM
JC, could you give some specific examples, perhaps naming and providing some archival photographs of those pre-tax-era roads? All I can think of are the railroads (which were paid for by tax money) and the dirt roads. Are there any roads anywhere in the world paid for by private enterprise (not counting NASCAR tracks and driveways). Those hospitals you refer too sound an awful lot the early like church-sponsored hospitals, which are funded by a minimum 10% "tax" if you will.
Posted by: Pattern Recognition | 2008-03-03 9:01:17 AM
>"How should roads, schools and hospitals be paid for?
Does the money magically appear or grow on trees?"
set you free,
What is it about the $8 BILLION surplus that the Alberta government posted in 2007 that you don't understand?
That surplus was under the existing Royalty regime.
That $8 BILLION surplus is AFTER money is budgeted for roads, schools and hospitals.
I believe Albertans want a Conservative government.
I don't see the difference between the Alberta Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives.
After unilaterally tearing up signed agreements with the energy industry, what the Alberta Progressives say cannot be counted on.
A Liberal minority government could hardly be worse that a PC minority government.
I don't have any fear that the Liberals will get a majority.
The handful of seats the WAP will get will point the way for Alberta Conservatives to vote in the future.
Posted by: Speller | 2008-03-03 10:10:43 AM
Predictions for today's Alberta election. PC's will go from 60 seats to 45 and will barely win a majority. If I'm right, I told you so, if I'm wrong, never mind. :)
Posted by: Markalta | 2008-03-03 10:21:58 AM
If you're right, the PCs will turf Mr. Stelmach as leader.
Posted by: Speller | 2008-03-03 10:50:52 AM
You think so? I bet it will take more than that.
Posted by: Markalta | 2008-03-03 11:54:52 AM
I think I understand now.
Since there's no difference between Conservatives and the LIberals, who would bring in a Kyoto-style regime, it's apparently OK if the Liberals gain more seats in Southern Alberta.
The Liberals have repeatedly warned the cheerleaders for Calgary's Oilgarchy that Stelmach's royalty regime does not go far enough.
So, how would it benefit Calgary that the Liberals they helped gains seats in the Legislature will advocate even higher royalties?
I'd like to see that explanation after 8 p.m. tonight, once the reality sinks in.
Posted by: set you free | 2008-03-03 12:13:42 PM
The conservatives will turf Stelmach, because the voting sheep of this province won't. And then we will have a premiere that no one voted for. Why are we so determined to make sure that the Oil companies make all the profits? The Alberta economic advantage for its citizens has vanished. The middle class and less fortunate do not have a voice in this Province. Remember, a society is judged by how it treats its minorities. And minority does not necessarily mean nationality it means those that are not in the majority. Many seniors, disabled and young people are feeling the squeeze maybe for the first time. None the less this is happening during the most prosperous time in this province. There has to be something wrong. And finally, if the corporations were so concerned they would have twinned the road to Fort McMurray years ago instead of jeopardizing every life that travels that highway. Grow up Alberta and vote Liberal just for a corruption sweep of the legislature. You can vote them out again in four years. Conservative know that if this happens this will blow a hole in the boogey man fear mongering agenda of the conservative power brokers in Alberta.
Posted by: RAW | 2008-03-03 12:23:19 PM
If you are so head strong against anything social. Why are you such a fan of Farmers, almost anything that they do involves socialist funding. If I have to compete heads up why does this not apply to them. Because, its a complex world and they would all go broke in this global farm community. Oh, do you use are health care system?
Posted by: RAW | 2008-03-03 12:29:49 PM
One last comment,
Wildrose alliance? From the debate the only thing I heard was eliminate taxes and get women back to being barefoot and pregnant. Yeah there is a step in the right direction. However, i encourage as many PC Sheep as possible out there to split the vote and vote Wildrose Alliance.
Posted by: RAW | 2008-03-03 12:33:16 PM
RAW: What do you have against barefoot and pregnant women? You prefer them in parkas and workboots?
Posted by: Markalta | 2008-03-03 12:37:51 PM
Nothing if it is by choice. Parkas and workboots if they prefer. I prefer woman who are there own masters making their own decisions. Of course this go against religious right thinking.
Posted by: RAW | 2008-03-03 12:46:54 PM
Good Point re: farming. Yes it has become a complex world, perhaps overly so. I very much endorse the idea of international trade in the agricultrural sector and every other sector for that matter. Its just my opinion though, that anything left to government bureaucracies goes from bad to worse and that all of us are probably more able to determine what is best for ourselves than any one else can. Especially wasteful, secretive bureaucracy (a Stalinist invention).
My "opinion" though isn't going to go very far. Not with the present philosophy of government in Canada and elsewhere that no one is responsible for anything any more, and that government will look after everything for us. All we need do is turn over most of the fruits of our labor and everything will be just fine. I don't buy it, but that's the way it is.
As for the health care system? I use it as little as possible and I take responsibility for, and carry private insurance.
Posted by: JC | 2008-03-03 12:48:45 PM
What do you have against farmers?
Are you suggesting that since you live in an urban area, you are endowed with some sort of superior intellect?
Since you are avowed Liberal supporter, that particular assumption about superior intellect is obviously untrue.
Posted by: set you free | 2008-03-03 12:49:24 PM
RAW: Your assertions are facetious regarding the religious right. I consider myself from that cloth, and while I prefer women stay at home to look after their children, it is by no means an order that must be fulfilled. After all, anyone with a brain knows that it is better for children to be raised with a Mom at home.
Posted by: Markalta | 2008-03-03 12:54:59 PM
I agree goverments are buaracratic and should be minimized. Free enterprise rules. Having said that, in a complex world our political institutions are their to create a balance. Big business does not do this. We do this as citizens of our democracy by voting. By voting for the liberals I feel it is my only way of giving a tired, egotistical, pompous governement a wake up call. Any party that feels it is a monarchy or dictarorship, you choose, needs to be awaken. I really do not believe in this left right agenda. I want good management and as with all management somtimes you need to invest and sometimes you need to cut costs.
set you free,
Lighten up, it was just an example to make a point. I eat food also.
Posted by: RAW | 2008-03-03 1:05:19 PM
I see you're also a mind-reader. How do you know what a party feels?
Posted by: set you free | 2008-03-03 1:09:03 PM
Children need to be raised by a loving community that supports them in all they do. A mother a father either or. Hopefully a parent or parents that can find affordable housing.
Posted by: RAW | 2008-03-03 1:13:37 PM
>"So, how would it benefit Calgary that the Liberals they helped gains seats in the Legislature will advocate even higher royalties?"
set you free | 3-Mar-08 12:13:42 PM
Whether the Liberals advocate higher Royalties from the opposition or from a minority government it is enough that they will only get higher Royalties with the help of the PCs who already have torn up their agreements with the energy sector for higher Royalties.
As the Conservative Heartland of Alberta, which is what Ed Stelmach called Calgary, it is important the people living in the Calgary area recognize that Red Ed's Progressives don't have Conservative interests or values in mind.
A few more Liberal seats, up to and including gaining a minority government position, isn't going to hurt if it wakes people up to the need to vote for real Conservatives.
Only the WAP is calling AGW hogwash.
The Alberta PCs, Liberals, and NDP are all behind the notion that Anthropogenic Global Warming is a reality.
Women is Alberta might as well be barefoot and pregnant if the PCs, Liberals, and NDP in Alberta are gunning for "Big Oil" and destroying the economy.
In that case the women might as well be collecting baby bonuses because they won't have jobs and going barefoot because they won't be able to afford shoes, although once they lose their homes, shoes will probably become a necessity.
Posted by: Speller | 2008-03-03 3:56:28 PM
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