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Tuesday, January 29, 2008

If you think the Republican contest was unpredictable

Jim Geraghty of National Review offers a scenario for the Democratic nomination that could split the party in half.

If both Hillary and Obama are short of the majority necessary, there will be 156 delegates from Michigan and 210 delegates from Florida, most of which will be for Hillary, sitting on the sidelines (DJ's note: the Dem Nat'l Committee stripped them of their delegates because they moved their primaries up so early). The Clintons will fight tooth and nail to get those into the count.

Under that scenario, the Obama camp and their supporters will be able to legitimately charge that yes, they did have the nomination stolen from them.

I further extened that possible scenario (here's my logic train, FWIW), and came up with this:

the GOP convention will begin four days after the Democratic one ends.  So odds are any attempt at “healing” will still be in the early (and unproductive) stages when the GOP nominee (whoever it is) can shake things up even further by picking an African-American running mate (say, former Maryland Lt. Governor Michael Steele or former Congressman J.C. Watts).

. . . titanic “ifs,” but should they all hold up, we could be headed for a realignment election of earth-shattering proportions.

If a Canadian spring election is added to all this, we political junkies may need some serious rehab after this year.

Posted by D.J. McGuire on January 29, 2008 in International Politics | Permalink


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So, DJ, what do you think of your man McCain working with Juan Hernandez? Does that not bother you? Or are you a "Mexico first" kind of American too?

Posted by: Markalta | 2008-01-29 3:09:09 PM

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