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Saturday, December 01, 2007

The State of Play (2008 Thoughts)

Now it gets interesting.  Rasmussen shows Huckabee moving to second place nationally.

If there really is a Rudy-Huck alliance then, looking at the raw numbers, this thing is damned near over.

As I see it, the way things go now:

Either Huckabee wins Iowa, or Romney narrowly does.  Giuliani performs better than expected.  Thompson fades.

Then we get to New Hampshire...  McCain picked up the Union Leader endorsement today (or will tomorrow). 

Romney must win New Hampshire - and by a lot.  Being the former Governor of a neighbouring state.  If someone else wins, he's probably done for.

And then...  Well, looking at it, the scenarios we're left with are as follows:

1) Divided results up until February 5th, when Giuliani takes it.
2) Romney wins New Hampshire and picks up momentum.
3) McCain wins New Hampshire, then either wins or performs well in Michigan, then goes into South Carolina.

Frankly, I don't see a path to the nomination for Fred Thompson at this point, unless, of course, events overtake him.  In particular, one possible event which would change the landscape would be if Rush Limbaugh decided to actually endorse him, a move which doesn't seem to be out of the question.  But, it's a low-probability scenario.

And all of this, of course, assumes that more personal stories don't explode over Giuliani.

On the Democratic side, things are even more interesting.

Obama is closing.  He has as much money as Clinton, more or less - and the ability to raise more.

I think that Iowa is damned-near a must-win for Hillary.  She's like that old story about the ad company trying to sell Dog food.

The executives all sit in the room for hours, discussing the ads, the placement on shelves - but everything is perfect.  Finally, one lonley secretary points out that the problem is that, "the Dogs don't like it."

That's Hillary's problem.  She's got the money.  She has the background.  She has the machine.  But the dogs don't like it.  That is to say, I've met - and I'm including on the internet here - only a handful of people who actually like her and want her to be President.  Her campaign is built upon inevitability and, especially in the case of Democratic primaries, inevtiability is meaningless - the Democrats like to eat their own.

If I was going to call it now, I'd say that the tickets:

Giuliani-Huckabee for the Republicans.


Obama-Bredesen for the Democrats.

The latter is an entirely random guess, I should add - but it makes sense.  Phil Bredesen is the moderate Governor of Tenneseee, with strong managerial experience (the CEO of a major health company no less). 

Posted by Adam T. Yoshida on December 1, 2007 in International Politics | Permalink


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"one possible event which would change the landscape would be if Rush Limbaugh decided to actually endorse him"

Rush does not endorse anyone in the primaries. That's his policy.

Posted by: obc | 2007-12-01 8:51:13 PM

If Hillary had not been married to Billybob, she wouldn't have a chance for the nomination. She has no experience whatsoever!

It's like allowing your dentist's wife to fill your cavities because - after all - the two discussed your problems over dinner all of last year.

Posted by: obc | 2007-12-01 8:54:59 PM

New hampshire is Ron Paul territory. He may not be main stream medias darling, but they seem to really like him down there.

Posted by: Leanne | 2007-12-01 9:39:29 PM

The closer Hillary gets to possibly having chance of becoming the US president the more likely that Billy Bob will sabotage her campaign.

Does anyone actually believe that his ego could stand his life long bitch having that much power over him.

I also find it hard to believe that the American people are ready for a black president or a horrid bitch like Hillary let alone any woman at all for president.

My money is on Guilliani.

Posted by: John | 2007-12-02 12:10:16 AM

I can see it now--American politics will be the facing off of Hillary and Rudy.

Rudy has so much more going for him than Hillary--he has charm, intelligence, and great American values. He is a real gentleman as well, the ladies of NA have put and are putting their support behind him.

Posted by: Lady | 2007-12-02 10:23:58 AM

This is so typical of last mid-century's DemoRat governors' tactics. When they were term-limited from running a 3rd time, they ran their wives as a front for themselves. Alabama's Lurleen Wallace comes to mind.

Posted by: obc | 2007-12-02 10:27:20 AM

The MSM is pumping up Huckabee because he's the type of Republican candidate who they believe would get killed in the general election - a pro-life bible-thumping populist who's soft on immigration, taxes, and Iraq. His surge is a mirage, from what I hear listening to insiders on Ingraham, Prager, Medved, etc. Romney will win Iowa, and New Hampshire will be between Mitt and McCain.

Posted by: Flaggman | 2007-12-02 11:07:35 AM

Flaggman ~

And don't forget he is a real-life ordained Minister.

The Enemedia can't wait for him to win the nomination so they can scream:

SEPARATION OF CHURCH & STATE! - allowing Her Heinous to strut up Pennsylvania Avenue with Billybob one step behind her.

Posted by: obc | 2007-12-02 11:16:29 AM

obc: what makes you think Hillary didn't run Bill in 1992?

Posted by: Zebulon Pike | 2007-12-02 11:21:42 AM

Zeb ~

You mean Monica was really servicing Hillary? :)

Posted by: obc | 2007-12-02 11:23:35 AM

A man died and went to heaven. As he stood in front of St. Peter at the Pearly Gates, he saw a huge wall of clocks behind him.

He asked, “What are all those clocks?”

St. Peter answered, “Those are Lie-clocks. Everyone on earth has a Lie-clock. Every time you lie, the hands on your clock will move.”

“Oh,” said the man, “whose clock is that?

“That’s Mother Teresa’s. The hands never moved, indicating that she never told a lie.”

“Incredible,” said the man. “And whose clock is that one?”

St. Peter responded, “That’s Abra­ham Lincoln’s clock. The hands have moved twice, telling us that Abe told only two lies in his entire life.”

“Where’s Hillary Clinton’s clock?” asked the man.

St. Peter responded, “Hillary’s clock is in God’s office. He’s using it as a ceiling fan.”

Posted by: obc | 2007-12-02 11:28:08 AM

While it wouldn't surprise me, I think it more likely that Bill became lonely and frustrated with Hillary working behind the scenes and needed some "internal" relief. Can't say I blame him.

Good joke about the clocks.

Posted by: Zebulon Pike | 2007-12-02 11:33:50 AM

I think Rudy is on his way out...Romney is slowing, but should rebound...if he takes Hunter for VP the republicans might just get back in.

Posted by: Markalta | 2007-12-02 3:31:50 PM

Funny how this story garnered no attention in the media. Oh, that's right - it involves DemoRats:

"Senate Aide In Kiddie Sex Bust"

FBI: Staffer for Sen. Maria Cantwell sought tryst with boy

DECEMBER 3- A U.S. Senate aide was arrested Friday after allegedly arranging a lunchtime sexual encounter with a teenage boy, according to federal court records. James McHaney, 28, was nabbed by FBI agents after he arranged the afternoon liaison via a "cooperating witness" working with investigators. According to the below felony complaint and an accompanying statement of facts filed in U.S. District Court in Washington, D.C., the CW and McHaney were conversing online Friday afternoon when the CW asked whether McHaney was interested in engaging in anal sex with a 13-year-old boy. "I'll be there," McHaney allegedly replied. He later asked for a photo of the child with whom he and the CW would have sex and whether the boy had "any pubes." When told no, McHaney allegedly replied, "That's hot." McHaney was nabbed in the lobby of an unnamed "predetermined location," where he had arranged to meet CW. Until his arrest Friday, McHaney had worked as the D.C. scheduler for Democratic Senator Maria Cantwell. A caller to Cantwell's office was told late today that, as of last Friday, McHaney no longer worked for the Washington state politician.

AND HOW DEEP into the article must one go before the Senator is identified as a DemoRat? The 2nd to last paragraph! Had it been a Republican, it would have been mentioned in the headline.

Typical Enemedia coverage.

Posted by: obc | 2007-12-03 7:50:23 PM


You mean to say that Republicans are held to a higher standard than are Dems?

Where have we seen that before?

Posted by: Lady | 2007-12-04 12:00:41 AM

DemoRats have no problem with the fraudulent concept of separation of Church & State if they benefit from it:

"Obama endorsed by dozens of black SC ministers"

Charleston, South Carolina - U.S. Sen. Barack Obama picked up the endorsement of almost 130 black South Carolina ministers Tuesday in this early voting state where he runs even with rival Hillary Rodham Clinton for the crucial black vote. Noted leaders of the civil rights movement including the Rev. Joseph Lowery and the Rev. C.T. Vivian, a close adviser of Martin Luther King Jr., attended the announcement.

Posted by: obc | 2007-12-05 8:45:32 AM

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