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Monday, December 31, 2007
Predictions for 2008
Well, it seems to be the thing to do today, so I’m going to give it a go:
1) Canadian Politics:
There will not be a General Election in 2008. Instead, Stephane Dion will continue to die a slow death, withering away in front of our very eyes. Both parties will fail to gain traction in the polls, absent some outside defining issue. The Liberals will be afraid to go, the Tories will be afraid to go – fear of the unknown will keep everything frozen for another year.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper will again confound conventional political wisdom by agreeing to a request that Canada increase the size of its mission in Afghanistan as, with Iraq fading from the news and Pakistan spiralling into chaos, international support coalesces for emulating the Iraqi “surge” strategy in Afghanistan and possibly even northern Pakistan.
My MP, James Moore, will finally become a member of the Cabinet.
Carole Taylor will run for and win the job of Mayor of Vancouver and, quite promptly, discover what she should have already known: that it’s an incredibly frustrating job in which doing anything of value is pretty much impossible.
The other BC Carole, Carole James, will be forced out by a panicked BC NDP in the summer/fall when they see the 2009 Election coming and no chance of her beating Gordon Campbell. Coming full circle, she will be replaced by Adrian Dix.
With it broadly expected that Gordon Campbell will retire sometime after the 2010 Olympics, a number of people will begin manoeuvring for the Premier’s job in earnest. Despite her “exit” from Provincial politics, Carole Taylor will be the early front-runner, if she can avoid being dragged down by the Vancouver Mayor’s job and if she can avoid a conservative revolt. She will probably be successful on the first count – and unsuccessful on the second. With the end of Campbell’s tenure in sight, MLA’s from the old Reform/Social Credit wing of the BC Liberal Party will begin to express their concerns about the party’s leftward drift more openly. Will they find a champion? Probably.
The one name missing from the list of people lining up to be Premier of British Columbia will be former Deputy Premier and current CKNW Radio Personality Christy Clark (full disclosure: once upon a time, I was a member of her riding association). She’s a smart woman and both a provincial and Federal liberal. Whatever her husband’s current job, she’ll know that there are going to be two Liberal leaderships opening up in the next few years. She’ll also know that there’s an appetite among the estrogen-heavy Liberal membership for a woman leader. After all – lack of Federal experience seems to be no bar to the job. Gerard Kennedy nearly won the job last time and his principal accomplishment in life up until that point (prior, I suppose, to being Education Minister of Ontario) was running a Food Bank. But for the timing of her ill-fated run for Mayor of Vancouver, she could have been a formidable candidate last time around. This time…
Forget what the polls say: Ed Stelmach will call a General Election in Alberta and he will either lose or nearly lose. The Alberta PC’s have the stench, even across Provincial borders, given off by all decaying and defeated regimes.
2) World Politics:
There will be no General Election in Britain in 2008. Like James Callaghan three decades ago, Gordon Brown will hold on and pray for a miracle. He might wait all the way into 2010 looking to change things around. It probably won’t work. But, mind you, David Cameron is no Maggie.
After nearly a decade in the wilderness, Benjamin Netanyahu will return to power as the Prime Minister of Israel. However, his return to power will be no cause for celebration…
…because his return to power will be triggered by Iran’s public declaration – a surprise to no honest person with an IQ higher than room temperature – that it either has deployed or will soon deploy nuclear weapons. With that Olmert’s government will come tumbling down and, like Britain in the terrible spring of 1940; Israel will turn to the man who turns out to have been right all along.
Contrary to expectations, the Beijing Olympics will prove to be an embarrassment for the Chinese regime. They will be disrupted by activists. Frantic efforts will be unable to hide the terrible state of the Chinese environment, which will injure the health of some of the athletes. Entering the country en masse after years of stories about China’s rise, the international media will prove very eager to tell the contrarian story of how China is blighted by extreme poverty and generally filthy conditions.
Pakistan will continue to teeter on the brink. It may fall over. If it does – if, for example, something terrible happens to Musharaff and an Islamist takeover beckons – the world will be treated to the most frightening days since September 11th, or possibly the Cuban missile crisis, as an alarmed India threatens war and the U.S. Armed Forces launch a desperate operation to either capture or disable Pakistan’s nuclear weapons before they fall into the wrong hands.
Iraq continues to improve. The momentum there towards a fairly decent civil society is becoming irreversible. As this happens, the smarter Democrats try and claim credit for forcing the course change.
3) American Politics:
The world will be treated to the most confusing American Presidential election – and perhaps the most critical – since 1860. Barak Obama will win the Democratic nomination for President – after surprising Hillary Clinton in the early primaries and winning the endorsement of John Edwards.
John McCain will be the Republican nominee for President, after Mitt Romney defeats Huckabee in Iowa, but by a small enough margin to fail to get a bounce. McCain wins New Hampshire thereafter, as the many, many Republicans who despite Mitt Romney but merely dislike McCain gather around the latter.
In March, Ron Paul will be defeated for re-nomination in his own House seat by local City Councilman Chris Peden. His devoted followers will blame this on “neocons” or, when they think people aren’t looking, simply on “the Jews.” Shortly thereafter, Paul will announce an independent campaign for the Presidency.
At roughly the same time, Michael Bloomberg also declares for the Presidency as an Independent, putting a billion dollars behind his campaign.
Thus, we’re going to left with a four-way race for the Presidency, with three candidates who can potentially win the Presidency – and probably with all four polling high enough to make it into the debates.
The race will be ugly and chaotic. Indeed, I would not be at all shocked if it was the first Presidential race in a very long time to be marred by actual violence.
Bloomberg will take either Chuck Hagel or Sam Nunn as his running mate. Obama, looking to burnish his foreign policy credentials, will follow the model of inexperienced candidates for the Presidency in recent years and choose a gray-haired insider as his running mate. Chris Dodd or Joe Biden both seem plausible. Depending on the environment, John McCain can go four ways. He can reach out to Evangelicals by taking Huckabee as his running mate. He can choose the best-polling Republican and take Giuliani. He can try to mollify movement conservatives and take someone like Fred Thompson, John Kyl, or South Carolina Mark Sanford. Or, recognizing that the race is out-of-control he could make a bold decision and attempt a fusion ticket of sorts by taking Joe Lieberman as his Vice President. I happen to prefer the final option, simply because it enjoy the idea of the 2000 Democratic Vice Presidential candidate being elected as a Republican in 2008.
In the end, despite erratic polling, John McCain is elected as the 44th President of the United States. He wins only a plurality of the popular vote, but a smashing Electoral College majority. Democrats spend the next four years pointing out that a majority of Americans voted for candidates on the left of the spectrum.
Democrats keep the Congress. They hold the House by a very narrow margin – but pick up one seat in the Senate (the Republicans, though, partially offset their losses by electing John Kennedy to the Senate in Louisiana).
4) Everything Else:
The Writer’s strike drags on longer than anyone expected. This is one of those unfortunate cases where justice is on both sides – the writers deserve to be paid for all of their work, but the studios don’t have more money to give. This disrupts the pilot season, resulting in the renewal and even the revival of many on-the-brink shows.
Further, studios put a number of remakes and the like into production – in addition to scripts coming off the shelf after many years.
Reflecting the mood of the day, “No Country for Old Men” wins the Oscar for Best Picture. In a divided verdict, Paul Thomas Anderson wins Best Director for “There Will be Blood.” Meanwhile, Ellen Page wins Best Actress for “Juno” and Daniel Day Lewis wins Best Actor for “There Will be Blood.”
Tom Kratman’s novel “Caliphate”, due to be published by Baen in a few months, causes a stir on the blogosphere and draws a human rights complaint against Indigo/Chapters for carrying it in Canada.
Posted by Adam T. Yoshida on December 31, 2007 in Current Affairs | Permalink
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Comments
...big things happening.
1. People start to realize the baby boomer retirement is only a year or so away
2. Foolish people will be left behind
3. Wise ones will be ready for the demographic shift.
Something about Matthew 25:1-13
Posted by: tomax7 at December 31, 2007 7:
Posted by: tomax7 | 2007-12-31 8:51:17 PM
1. Harper removed, Liberals win next election
2. Hillary gets in
3. Gas hits $2.50/liter
Posted by: tomax7 | 2007-12-31 8:57:12 PM
oil prices tumble, you know the rest
Posted by: dp | 2007-12-31 8:59:13 PM
What f--king country do you live in Adam? If a traitor is one who cares more for another country than his own, and I think that's a fair definition, then this post exposes you as a traitor.
We need people who give a shit about Canada, not traitors obsessed with other countries. After all, if Canadians don't look after Canada, who will?
I don't want to see another fucking post here at the Shotgun that isn't focused exclusively on Canada, is that clear?
Is that f--king clear?
Is that f--king clear?
Hello Matthew Johnston, you speaky the english? Yes? Mucho Cananda por favor!
Else I might have to start thinking you people are traitors. I will be COUNTING, ARCHIVING, AND CALCULATING every fucking post at the shotgun in 2008. A person who makes 20 consecutive posts which aren't about Canada or conservatism is, by definition, an unconservative unCandadian. Get that in your thick f--king skulls.
Posted by: KING OF NORTH AMERICA | 2007-12-31 9:12:07 PM
Don't worry King of North America, the North American Union will look out for Canada! You will soon be in safe hands! Resistance is futile!
Sincerely,
Big Brother
Posted by: Jeff | 2007-12-31 9:28:34 PM
First: If there is an election for us in Canada in '08 Guaranteed the liberals won't get in, sorry tomax. Dion is just too eco-nut for many people to handle and in all fairness the conservatives have been doing a decent job as of late. If an election was triggered all Harper would have to do to kill off Dion would be to paint him as incompetent for the job and with dion's current ability to speak English he'd prolly come off that way to most english canadians in the debates. I'd suspect a new democrat surge in seats if Layton's able to play it smart, for once, and concentrate on healthcare and the rediculous waiting times that neither the conservatives or Liberals have been able to fix..
Second: I can't see Bloomberg running this election... maybe 2012, but definitely not now. America is too partisan and split at the moment. Although I suppose it all does come down to the primaries. I don't think McCain really has a chance on the republican side, my guess is either Romney or Huckabee. And if either of those two go up against Hillary they'll be wiped out unfortunately we'd be looking at Hillary as president for sure. I really wish it could come out another way though.
Third: That's a real dick remark about Ron Paul's supporters you got there. You can't honestly think that many of Ron Paul's supporters are white supremacists can you? The guy's got 8% nationwide down there and I don't think that that many American's are antisemitists do you? Even 4% would seem too much for just that.. but at the same time I think you might be right about him possibly losing his seat, he has really alienated alot of republicans and I could certainly see him losing his seat. If he did run as an independent I could see him at most grabbing 11% and at most, just a couple electoral votes from Washigton state.
Posted by: Aaron L. | 2007-12-31 9:36:02 PM
People in America are learning, and fearing, the North American Union as well. That has been one of the primary reasons for the surprise support of US presidential candidate Ron Paul.
Posted by: Dustin | 2007-12-31 9:59:17 PM
You are all speaking nonsense. probably you are all drunk.
Posted by: epsilon | 2007-12-31 11:14:16 PM
Interesting to see how Adam (once again) is more obsessed with American politics than Canadian.
Just move south already, it's not like The Western Standard will stop you from posting here, they are as enamoured with the United States as you are.
Posted by: Snowrunner | 2008-01-01 12:04:07 AM
Adam:
Ya think? I'm hoping for my own personal fatwa from the book, but being charged in Canada might be almost as emotionally satisfying.
;)
Tom Kratman
Posted by: Tom Kratman | 2008-01-01 1:02:33 AM
...i take it adam's post was nixed.
Besides that, while Dion may have problems, has everyone recovered from the Income Trust issue?
Hey I hope the Conservatives keep going, but don't underestimate the power greed of the Liberals. Heck Liberal and NDP might form a new party - LDP's.
Posted by: tomax7 | 2008-01-01 10:36:39 AM
To: KING OF NORTH AMERICA
1. USA!
2. USA!
3. USA!
4. USA!
5. USA!
6. USA!
7. USA!
8. USA!
9. USA!
10. USA!
11. USA!
12. USA!
13. USA!
14. USA!
15. USA!
16. USA!
17. USA!
18. USA!
19. USA!
20. USA!
Ok so now that im on his new Gestapo hit list, I can say without bias that what goes on in the USA also effects us greatly, so why would we ignore it?
Alberta PC's almost loosing the election? To who? The NDS or Libs? LOL ya right...and the old wild alliance rose party lacks money and candidates to win the next election...maybe we should start a Western Standard party? May have a better chance then the others.
Posted by: The SW | 2008-01-01 12:58:52 PM
My predictions for 2008:
1) Ron Paul wins the Republican nomination after strong second-place finishes in both New Hampshire and Iowa, and sweeping first-place finishes on Super Tuesday;
2) Ron Paul wins the presidential election, after Obama and Bloomberg split the Democratic vote;
3) The US dollar collapses during the summer and fall, taking down the world economy into its worst depression since the 1930's. Gold goes to $5000/oz.
4) The Shotgun Blog is taken over by Fox News (its ideological fountainhead), and is renamed the Voice of the North American Fatherland.
Posted by: akak | 2008-01-01 2:16:52 PM
My prediction: Canadian companies will continue to be more productive using smarts and smart tool. Being a bit self serving here but read this case history about a BC marketing company: http://www.vertabase.com/blog/project-management-software-for-marketing-companies-and-ad-agencies/
Posted by: Howard | 2008-01-01 3:32:39 PM
'In March, Ron Paul will be defeated for re-nomination in his own House seat by local City Councilman Chris Peden. His devoted followers will blame this on “neocons” or, when they think people aren’t looking, simply on “the Jews.” '
What a disgusting, low smear! "neocon" != "Jew," and Ron Paul's main intellectual mentors, Ludwig Mises and Murray Rothbard, were... Jews!
You should be ashamed of yourself.
Posted by: Gene Callahan | 2008-01-01 8:01:04 PM
My prediction is that there will be continuing wonderful stories of this nature:
"Customer pulls gun, stops robbery"
Indianapolis - It was a busy night Monday at Buck's IGA on the 3000 block of South Meridian Street. "Charlie," who didn't want his image or name used with this story, was in line to check out.
A man police later identified as Dwain Smith reportedly ran into the store wearing a ski mask and yelling.
Cashier Dianna Brooks repeated what she says she heard. "I heard the guy say 'give me all your money' and the next thing I heard was stacy saying 'somebody help me.'"
Charlie says he responded immediately. "When I heard it I automatically took mine (gun) out." And Charlie says he was ready to act. "If he had raised it (gun) up yes I would have shot him."
THIS FELLOW DESERVES a medal - and a ticker-tape parade with lots of confetti!
http://www.wthr.com/Global/story.asp?S=7565465&nav=menu188_2
Posted by: obc | 2008-01-02 7:30:07 AM
My prediction is that there will be continuing wonderful stories of this nature:
"Customer pulls gun, stops robbery"
Indianapolis - It was a busy night Monday at Buck's IGA on the 3000 block of South Meridian Street. "Charlie," who didn't want his image or name used with this story, was in line to check out.
A man police later identified as Dwain Smith reportedly ran into the store wearing a ski mask and yelling.
Cashier Dianna Brooks repeated what she says she heard. "I heard the guy say 'give me all your money' and the next thing I heard was stacy saying 'somebody help me.'"
Charlie says he responded immediately. "When I heard it I automatically took mine (gun) out." And Charlie says he was ready to act. "If he had raised it (gun) up yes I would have shot him."
THIS FELLOW DESERVES a medal - and a ticker-tape parade with lots of confetti!
http://www.wthr.com/Global/story.asp?S=7565465&nav=menu188_2
Posted by: obc | 2008-01-02 7:31:27 AM
Interesting that the Canadian pathology of anti-Americanism is still alive and well. It's ironic that the Red-Tory/NDP/Liberal mindset that dislikes Canadians interested in and somewhat knowledgeable of America would seemingly prefer a population similar to most of America where ignorance of almost all things Canadian is the norm.
Yoshida - we get that you can't think rationally when Ron Paul is your subject - no sense repeating yourself.
Posted by: John Chittick | 2008-01-02 11:50:33 AM
obc: Isn't that vigilante justice? I'm all for it! Finally a feel good story for the New Year! :)
Posted by: Markalta | 2008-01-02 12:15:34 PM
Markalta ~
Hardly vigilante justice. The fellow didn't go looking for a confrontation. It found HIM.
We know how long it takes the police to arrive. People could have been shot while they took the call and put down their donuts.
A society has a right & duty to defend itself against criminals like these.
THIS MAN IS A HERO!!!
Posted by: obc | 2008-01-02 12:41:07 PM
Ron Paul will be relegated to obscurity, simply because he's nuts.
The US economy will thrive as it always has, despite the doom-sayers.
Neither Obama nor Clinton will be elected, simply because one is a Negro and the other is a woman ( sort-of).
Real Canadians will continue to look to their Southern Brothers and Sisters for guidance and advice, simply because real Canadians know America is the freeist, most democratic country on earth.
All who disagree should look well to their future.
God Bless America and God Bless the Office of the President of the United States!
Posted by: atric | 2008-01-02 3:44:32 PM
Dear Atric, I hope you own gold and silver, because they are the only thing that is going to "thrive" in the devastating depression next year. But like most people, you are probably one of the sheeple who believes everything that his government and the corporate media tell you. Yes, they only have your best interests at heart, and they know what's best for you. Don't open your eyes or try to think for yourself --- it's officially discouraged.
God's blessings won't mean squat with US inflation of 100%, bank failures and mass employment.
Posted by: akak | 2008-01-02 7:19:52 PM
Dear Atric, I hope you own gold and silver, because they are the only thing that is going to "thrive" in the devastating depression next year. But like most people, you are probably one of the sheeple who believes everything that his government and the corporate media tell you. Yes, they only have your best interests at heart, and they know what's best for you. Don't open your eyes or try to think for yourself --- it's officially discouraged.
God's blessings won't mean squat with US inflation of 100%, bank failures and mass employment.
Posted by: akak | 2008-01-02 7:22:56 PM
akak,
Go put all your money in a sack and bury it in your mountain hideaway to which I expect you to beat a quick retreat!
Epsi
Posted by: epsilon | 2008-01-02 7:55:00 PM
epsi ~
NO POINT IN ARGUING WITH THE fanatic Roo Paul nuts.
They will never be convinced, just like missionaries will never cede their religious beliefs.
Posted by: obc | 2008-01-02 9:27:47 PM
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