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Saturday, January 21, 2006
Predictions for Monday
Yesterday I attended a speech by Darrell Bricker, a pollster with Ipsos-Reid. It was sold out, if you can believe it. The room was full of wonks and nerds and media (and overlap of those three). Steve Paikin was there, and got a much-deserved round of applause for his job at the debate. He has an extremely poised, intelligent son, fyi. At any rate, Bricker predicts a Tory minority, very close to majority. He issued a caveat: Last time he did this, he was wrong.
Most interesting (to me, at least), was that he said the tipping point for Stephen Harper was Jane Creba's murder. This was where Harper jumped ahead by 10%. Paul Martin talked about a "culture of exclusion," while Harper talked about punishing bad guys. Martin put focus on the criminals, Harper on the victim. (Which approach appeals most to you?) He also said that it was the people in the suburbs of Toronto who were more concerned with crime, which was why the Conservatives should do well there. Apparently, people who live right in Toronto don't worry so much about crime, which explains why the Conservatives probably won't do well in Toronto proper.
For more on Bricker's predictions, see Gerry Nicholls' blog.
Cross-posted at Wonkitties.
Posted by wonkitties on January 21, 2006 | Permalink
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Comments
A lot can be explained by time horizons. For socialists there is only the past and the present. Only for conservatives is the future very important.
Conservatives tend to have larger families than liberals because they have faith the future. Socialists states are experiencing a demographic drag because they aren’t replacing themselves fast enough to pay for their socialist programs, witness Europe and Quebec. Because conservatives tend to have larger families they are more concerned about ending crime that endangers their families.
To tie this back to the Boxing Day murder, conservatives tend to blame crime on the perpetrators and have sympathy for the families of the victims and try to end the problem with justice. Liberals blame crime on the past unfairness of society as a whole rather than the irresponsible perpetrators. Liberals claim society needs to repaired with more expensive state programs delivered by unionized apparatchiks. Liberals think the problems all started in the past. Their solutions will place huge burdens on the economic future of all of us, but Liberals don’t care, they just want power now, the future is not of concern to them. Power now is all that matters.
But having canvassed in Toronto this week, the most heartening observation for me has been that immigrants have been completely misread by Liberals. They came to this country because they care about the future for their families. Immigrants are beginning to understand that Liberal brainwashing that "Liberals brought you here and now you owe us" is just that: brainwashing. I think over time Conservatives can attract the immigrant population with a promise of a better future for their families.
Posted by: nomdenet | 2006-01-21 3:43:58 PM
The only things keeping immigrants on the fence are social issues like gay marriage and abortion. I've always wondered how the Libs could create policy for the abstractly 'progressive" blueblood elites in central Canada and still be able to hoard the ethnic vote.
Most immigrants would like to strike down the two mentioned policies -- but their fear of what the Liberals have told would happen if the scary conservatives get in, far outweigh their objections to Liberal social engineering. Older european generations are reminded of Diefenbaker at every turn; Other, newer, poorer, groups are told Harper will cut off all assistance and close the borders to their extended families; freeloaders and criminals are told the same, and fear it for different reasons; Muslims loath most 'progressive' policies, but believe harper will join Bush in bombing their homelands and restricting their rights here; and on and on.. For every group, the Libs have a trump card.
Posted by: Stopthetrain | 2006-01-21 9:15:50 PM
If I lived in downtown Toronto, I'd be worried about people shooting at me and mine. Poor working tax paying people don't live in downtown Toronto. Seems to me you are either on some kind of subsidized government welfare racket or incredibly wealthy. So there you go, Toronto will always be"lieberal" center.
Posted by: circe | 2006-01-21 10:30:43 PM
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