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Wednesday, January 11, 2006
Minority math
Like Andrew Coyne, I put a lot of, uh, stock in the UBC's election stock market -- where more than 200 armchair pundits have bet more than $50,000 of their own real money on the election's outcome. It's not a perfect market, but it's a pretty good pool, and it has always seemed sensible to me.
Here's a snapshot of the "market" for seats: 
If this were the result, the Tories would have a minority, but a healthy one -- and any of the three other parties would have enough seats to top them up. On many issues, it's easy to imagine at least one or two opposition parties (including many Liberals) who would join the Tories on an ad hoc basis to pass a bill. There might even be some post-election defections to top the Tories up -- perhaps some of the more conservative members of the Liberals.
And as I've argued before, while the Tories are apart from the Bloc and NDP on certain issues (social issues and the war, for example) they are perfectly united in their common loathing for the Liberals, especially their corruption and insider-ism. A one- or two-year minority government with the main achievement being a deep, forensic audit of every Liberal scheme, scam and program for the past decade (gun registry; off-the-books foundations; polling contracts) would unite them all, and even make it tough for the Liberals to oppose.
Doubtless the skeletons falling out of the closets would be enough to damage the Liberal "brand" for a decade, and perhaps even put a hundred top Liberal operators in jail. Not bad for a year's worth of minority government -- certainly more than Martin's achieved to date.
Posted by Ezra Levant on January 11, 2006 | Permalink
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Comments
"...perhaps even put a hundred top Liberal operators in jail..."
In our jails?
In Canada?
You're not making this up?
Posted by: Edwin | 2006-01-11 4:30:56 PM
LOL...nice Edwin !
Posted by: MarkAlta | 2006-01-11 5:45:27 PM
Erza my friend......I venture to say that the Liberals are already shredding like there is no tomorrow!!!!!!
Posted by: themaj | 2006-01-11 5:55:22 PM
The most likely result of this election is that the Bloc Quebecois will absolutely max out their elected seat count with as many as 65 or 66 candidates elected. This will give them an incentive to make a minority government last, since an election would mean the probable defeat of about 15 of them. A Conservative minority with support from the BQ might be around for a few years of thorough Liberal investigation.
Posted by: CJ | 2006-01-11 10:44:52 PM
"A one- or two-year minority government with the main achievement being a deep, forensic audit of every Liberal scheme, scam and program for the past decade (gun registry; off-the-books foundations; polling contracts) would unite them all, and even make it tough for the Liberals to oppose."
Great, because what we need after the past year and half of completely ineffective government is another year or two of useless partisan bickering and finger pointing. Let's hope that if the Conservatives do win a minorty, they have more sense than Ezra and get to the business of running the country rather than scoring political points.
Posted by: Greg | 2006-01-11 11:00:49 PM
Greg,
It wouldn't be about the conservatives 'scoring political points' it would be about righting wrongs. Making the Liberal bums accountable for all the scandal and corruption, and inacting laws to prevent politicians and their subordinates from getting away with criminal behavior without any repercussion like what happens now.
Posted by: tigerpants | 2006-01-12 2:58:18 AM
I think there is a practical purpose to the shredding, "maj".
They need masks for the inevitable perp-walks. :-b...
Why let all that good "papier-mache" material go to waste?
Posted by: jwkozak91 | 2006-01-12 4:41:02 AM
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