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Friday, December 30, 2005
Election predictions
Speaking of politicized stock exchanges, the UBC election stock market is a useful tool for predicting election results. It's often been more accurate than mere polls for intangible reasons (polls cannot extrapolate themselves into the future, for example) and because the market aggregates hundreds of discrete pockets of information that investors all around the country have. More to the point, it makes would-be pundits put their money where their mouths are.
I've been glancing at it daily, especially their seat prediction, and this morning's prediction -- 109 for the Tories, and 119 for the Libs -- is the smallest that gap has been since I've started watching it.
Even if the Tories don't gain any more, they've hacked the gap from the last election down by 26 seats -- and made it impossible for a Liberal-NDP coalition to have a majority.
I asked a few Liberal friends of mine if this meant that on January 24th the knives would be out in the Liberal party for Martin (I assumed they would be). To my surprise, these Libs -- not all Martinites, by the way -- said "no", arguing that the Liberal party likes to unite behind a front-runner and not have an internecine bloodbath. I'm not sure if I support that logic. I think it's safe to start thinking up epitaphs for Paul Martin.
How odd; the dauphin who was once hailed as the best prime minister Canada would ever have will be remembered as one of the worst -- incoherent on policy, crude and brutish in tactics, short-sighted in strategy, the redeemer of the Bloc Quebecois, the inflamer of Western alienation, the antagonizer of America and the most indecisive PM since Joe Clark.
UPDATE: At 1:18 p.m. PT, the gap has closed to 111 seats for the Tories to 118 for the Liberals, and 38.5% to 37% of the popular vote. Is this a short-term spike -- or a thoughtful, 24-day-out prediction? We'll know on the 23rd.
Posted by Ezra Levant on December 30, 2005 | Permalink
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» The Sad Truth about Paul Martin in One Paragraph from EclectEcon
Ezra Lavant, writing for the Western Standard blog, says about Paul Martin (Canada's Prime Minister), How odd; the dauphin who was once hailed as the bes... [Read More]
Tracked on 2005-12-30 1:51:58 PM
» The Best Predictor of the Outcome of the Canadian Election from EclectEcon
Canadians go to the polls on January 23rd to elect new members of parliament who will, in turn, [try to] decide which party governs the country. There are numerous poll results flying out from the MSM on an almost daily basis. But as we learned from th... [Read More]
Tracked on 2006-01-03 1:26:46 AM
Comments
I will predict that Goodale resigns by the end of next week
Two pictorals on this topic and a revue of humpback mountain.
http://dukemcgoo.blogspot.com
Posted by: Duke | 2005-12-30 12:34:41 PM
Decency will die, ideology will prevail. The mean people will sacrifice anything and everything to maintain power, morals, ethics, accountability, responsibility and personal integrity. The only other Party I could vote for is the NDP, for the most part they don't lie about their intentions or who they are not. Never before have I looked at a liberal and said to myself, I don't trust that person, but I do now. When a Countries population has sunk so low that they could vote for a party that lies, cheats and steals from them it says something about the Country itself. Hopefully this will signal the end of Western parties lowering themselves to eastern standards to be elected and leave them with their squalid morals. I can honestly say that after this last decade I am a hard core Western Separatist with mixed feelings about this election. A part of me hopes the mean ones win again so the Western movement can begin and words will become action.
Posted by: Western Canadian | 2005-12-30 12:40:08 PM
So much for a coherent, conservative vision for Canada coming out of the "new" Conservative Party. Same approach to gaining power as the Liberals with the same long-term consequences: corruption and cynicism. Mr. Harper's "policy-a-day-in-a-vacuum" just might get him elected this time, but he has no mandate for doing anything substantively conservative in his term. I'm very much looking at Western separatism after 40+ years of voting (and working) conservative.
Posted by: Skeptical Westerner | 2005-12-30 12:58:14 PM
The depth of the market at the UBC site reduces its predictive value. There are two intersting things worth noting, however.
First, there is a pattern of Liberal buying or topping-up that apparently seeks to push back against negative news. The UBC pool is sufficiently small in this regard to permit such manipulation.
Secondly, and more importantly, is the clear disconnect between the 'popular vote' and the attendant 'seat projections' at the UBC site.
For an interesting exercise, take the popular vote from UBC and plug it into the projected seat calculator offered at http://predictor.hillandknowlton.ca/. From this, you see that the Tories are already ahead of the Liberals - a fact that the UBC site disguises.
Posted by: MGK | 2005-12-30 1:02:37 PM
Hi MGK,
it's not being 'disguised.' Geez, you make it sound like some smokey-roomed conspiracy. It's called 'arbitrage opportunity' my friend. Short the liberal seat share if you think it is mispriced.
You're right that liquidity in the market isn't great - especially during the holidays. These things arise now and then. Give it some time and it will even out . If it doesn't, then sign up and start taking advantage of the arbitrage opportunities!
Posted by: groovy-on-granville | 2005-12-30 1:21:52 PM
Ezra:
The Index now shows the CP ahead for the very first time!!
Posted by: Gord Tulk | 2005-12-30 1:52:04 PM
From your friendly American:
As we say in the States, don't write your lead on the way to the ballpark!
Posted by: Meg Q | 2005-12-30 2:07:16 PM
I am Hoping The CP will win, I have been a member since the old Reform days, However if they dont win, I feel then we have no choinc but to think about western seperation, and build the best nation in NA.
Posted by: Red Deer Albertain | 2005-12-30 2:26:19 PM
For what it's worth -
I predict that Goodale won't resign. He can't; that would blow the whole Liberal election strategy - which is simple and basic. Their strategy is that there is only ONE party that has a right to govern: the Liberals.
In Canada, dissent is not allowed. Diversity IS allowed. What's the difference? Diversity is reduced to cultural artifacts; you can and indeed must be diverse in your ethnic foods, your songs and dances, your religion. You are herded into separate groups and expected to put on endless festivals that celebrate your 'diversity'..It's quite the song and dance.
BUT - there is Only One Way To Think.There is no diversity of thought. There is Only The Liberal Way. Dissent is not allowed; you may not debate, discuss, or argue about The Liberal Way. That is heresy; it is unCanadian.
Example: You may not debate or discuss health care; there is Only One Way To Think about health care. Nothing else can be debated or discussed.
Same with all other issues. There is only one way. Diversity is all about your dances and songs; diversity of thought is heresy.
Therefore, since Goodale is a member of The Only Party, then, he cannot resign, for that would suggest that there is something wrong with that party. Remember - Martin told us - that the Sponsorship was 'done by a few rogues'. Not the Liberals. There is Only One Party That Has a Right To Rule. That's also why the House of Commons has been reduced to irrelevancy; why the Liberals never, ever, answer questions; and why patronage has become so vital and important in our governance.
I also predict that the Liberals are going to launch a huge campaign, soon, about The Right Party. The Liberals operate only by emotion, by appealing to the emotions. They operate by bribes - and bribes are an emotional deal - for they aren't based on merit, principles but on an attempt to emotively affect behaviour etc.
They operate by appealing to guilt (to thinking differently), to fear (of separation, of no health care), to hatred (of Americans), to love (of Canada regardless of what it does). They operate by an insistence on faith. We Must believe in Them, for they are the only party with the Right to Rule.
So far, we've had a campaign based on a clear and simple platform from the CPC, with easy to understand and appreciated agendas, presented every few days - appealing to Common Sense. Not to emotion. But to down-to-earth requirements and to common sense.
By the way, Sceptical Westerner - the CPC tactic of a 'policy a day' is the only tactic that will work in Canada. Canada has, over the past generation, become so politically corrupt that it does not permit opposition parties, it does not permit dissent or debate. There is only ONE WAY to think - and to challenge this, by presenting a full platform - would mean that the CPC, or any party that tried it - would never win.
The Liberals don't work this way - talking to the average citizen. They don't live on the same level of life as the rest of us do; they live via entitlement. They are entitled to enormous expense paid trips, lunches, benefits and so on.
Harper is talking to the average citizen; that's what his TV ads are all about. Mr and Mrs. Ordinary - who are, after all, the majority. The Liberals appeal to Spectator Music Hot Shots - to screaming, emotive, fans. The Bono Trip. So- they don't talk to or with the ordinary requirements of life; they don't live on that level. They present us with Gladiator Shows, they force us into hysteria, into mindless emotive reactions, with booming music..to hide the fact that they say and do nothing for us.
That's what we will see, I predict, in January. The Liberals will move into Emotion. Love and Hate. Do they have anything else? And - will it work????
Posted by: ET | 2005-12-30 2:43:54 PM
ET, very well put and true, but long winded. I do fully agree it will work in the end.
Everything you said I agree with and do appreciate the time you took to express the views of many, including myself. My long-winded snipe is just frustration.
Posted by: Western Canadian | 2005-12-30 5:51:04 PM
Red Deer, EXACTLY.
Posted by: Western Canadian | 2005-12-30 5:52:38 PM
you're preachin' to the choir ET. For what it's worth methinks Goodale's office didn't leak diddly squat and it came out of the PMO. to be kicked back to the proper authorities of course.
Posted by: kelly | 2005-12-30 6:18:52 PM
ET, I agree with Kelly, you are preaching to the converted, get the hell off this blog and take your talents to a blog where they will do some good. Actually you piss me off because you say what I want to only better.
Posted by: Western Canadian | 2005-12-30 6:33:29 PM
ET, You should post that at ctv.ca, might do a little good over there.
Posted by: Ty | 2005-12-30 7:01:13 PM
Kinsella >>>> It's over.
The bottom has fallen out. I feel it.
Dithers has three weeks to turn things around. He will need the best ad air war, and the best debate performance, in the history of the planet.
He won't pull it off because, at the end of the day, he's not a leader. Never has been, never will be.
The second part of the campaign - the real campaign - is over before it has started. You read it here first, as they say. >>>
warrenkinsella
Posted by: maz2 | 2005-12-30 7:02:09 PM
If Paul Martin is history, (I don't suppose the Liberals, The Party of Winning, will be too pleased with a second minority government, smaller than the first.)
If Martin's place at the top is to be short-lived, then just who ARE we voting in as our next prime-minister?
Posted by: pete e | 2005-12-31 2:05:24 AM
Excerpt. By Dust My Broom, aka Raskolnikov: An indian; his own word. Must read all >> Comments, ET?
Is Quebec a part of Canada, or is that illusory? Why?
Technically yes. Any other way, no. They have set up a distinct society that has little or nothing to do with the rest of the country. Saskatchewan might as well be Tanzania for the average Francophone. Nice place to visit for a week but I can't wait to get back to my own hemisphere. As much as I despise the hardcore Frogs for their disloyalty and hypocritical behavior on almost everything, I have to admire the ability to maintain their own little world. The terrorists and radicals, as well as immigrants in general who see Canada as the doormat I mentioned above, could take a few pointers from Quebec on how to setup your own mini-universe as a base to tear the rest of the country apart.
What will Canada look like in 100 years? Why?
The exact same. Quebec spinning its wheels and shaking its fist; Alberta tax-free with gold-paved sidewalks grumbling about moving out on its own but not wanting to raise a fuss; Legions of Indian doctors, lawyers and millionaires enjoying their success while the victimhood cult, now a national political party, keeps up the bitching about now-600-year-old crimes. Maybe a burnt-out building or a memorial crater where part of Toronto or Ottawa used to be before the one tile in that wonderful, polite, charming cultural mosaic set off a nuke or dirty bomb. Otherwise the same -- no identity, no balls, no presence in the world.>>>
http://sigcarlfred.blogspot.com/2005/12/love-that-kills-on-couch-with.html
via SDA
Posted by: maz2 | 2005-12-31 4:30:12 AM
REVEALED!
A vote for the CPC is a vote for people who hate Canada!!!
http://www.cbc.ca/story/canadavotes2006/national/2005/12/31/elxn-goldring051231.html
Posted by: justin | 2005-12-31 5:06:05 PM
Just a message for Ezra L,
We read the article " Publisher defends decision"
CONTROVERSIAL CARTOONS APPEARS IN WESTERN STANDARD.
We also saw Your interview on CBC where you had no problem calling them chickens afraid of Muslims throwing rocks through the CBC windows but never afraid to offend Christians, Jews and so on.
You were right on the money. Clearly Courageous against the mad Muslim outrageous behaviour and disappointing western liberal moronic media HYPOCRITS
Hats of to you Mr Lavant
TWO THUMBS UP. WAY UP.
Ed and GAIL
Posted by: GAILY | 2006-02-16 1:48:07 AM
A big THANK YOU to Ezra Lavant for standing up for what's right and sticking to it under pressure. You make me feel like there is still some hope for the Canadian press. Hopefully others will be inspired by you and stop stickin' it to the public. Heard you with Charles Adler on CKNW -- good interview!
Posted by: Allison Jones | 2006-02-17 1:01:39 PM
Nice the western standard is spreading racism: "hardcore Frogs".
Thank you. As someone in Quebec who supports sovereignty, I will show this to my colleagues to show them further evidence Canada is racist country and Quebec should get out of it as soon as possible.
Au revoir!
Posted by: phil | 2006-10-11 12:49:45 PM
Are the French a race? No.
You are pathetic, phil, to be commenting way back here in the archives. The quote that so offends you comes from an Indian commenter on another blog that a passing commenter, like your self-esteemed self, had quickly imparted, then left.
I hope you and your pals with the 'Napoleon Complexes' get your sovereignty soon and stop being parasites on Alberta's economy. Then we can ditch multiculturalism just as you tolerant Quebers have so long ago and never again have to live under the illusion that the Liberal Party of Canada has to protect us from Quebec separation by bribing such proud people as yourself with Alberta's stolen future.
Posted by: Speller | 2006-10-11 1:14:42 PM
After living for years in sou thern California, it is WONDERFUL to finally hear a CANADIAN speaking the truth. Thank you for going on Glen Beck tonight and showing that "Canada is not all liberal"...and I thank you fo r expressing the "minority" view.
Posted by: Ms. Scotty Rolland | 2008-01-22 10:50:57 PM
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