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Sunday, July 25, 2004
Bush-Kerry too close to call
The Associated Press reports that President George W. Bush -- who has just won a bunch of World Stupidity Awards at the Just for Laugh festival -- has a slight edge over Senator John Kerry in the electoral college. Bush leads comfortably in 25 states worth 217 electoral votes compared to Kerry's 14 states (and DC) and 193 electoral votes. There are 11 states up for grabs worth 128 electoral votes. If they split them, Bush wins. Furthermore, AP reports that Kerry is scaling back operations in four key leaning Bush states: Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri and Arizona.
Washington Post columnist George F. Will writes today that small things will matter in this election. Bush could try to win Pennsylvania by playing the cultural issues card -- abortion, capital punishment and gun control (PA has more NRA members than any other state) -- but that could drive away voters in other states. But the places this would most likely happen are already Kerry states. Kerry is targeting several leaning Bush states because they are "competitive" but, reports Will, according to one senior Bush campaign official Colorado is "competitive" "only in the sense that Kerry can lose by 8 points or spend millions and lose by 5 points. The official puts Arizona in the same category. However, some such state is apt to provide a surprise on Nov. 2." In 2000, Gore would have won if 269 votes switched sides in Florida -- "or 3,606 in New Hampshire, or 13,784 in Nevada, or 20,490 in West Virginia."
The polls show the race is too close to call. There are just 100 days in the campaign which, as the cliche goes, is a lifetime in politics. A bump in the polls after the Democratic National Convention could build irreversible momentum or be just a momentary blip. The point is, there is lots of time and lots of little pseudo-events on the campaign trail to change people's minds. Still, I'm going to stay with my original prediction of a Bush victory. Kerry has not been taken a close, or more importantly consistent look at; once Americans watch him for the many hours that the last two months of the campaign will force them to do, they'll learn all they need to know about Kerry: this is not the man they want on their TV screens for four years. He is simply not likeable. He could have all the advantages that Gore had but he also has his greatest disadvantage: he doesn't pass the "I'd like to have a beer with him test." Bush wins with 285-310 electoral votes. I think all the small things George Will writes about will start going Bush's way, in part because of a point Will makes: now that Iraqis have control over their own country, Iraq will be less of an issue. More Americans have died so far in July than they have in June. But it doesn't matter. This is one of the many small things that will add up to a big Bush victory in November.
Posted by Paul Tuns on July 25, 2004 in Current Affairs | Permalink
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Comments
I certainly hope your predictation is correct!
The thought of Kerry as president is a very
frightening thought at this time in history.
President Bush has made it clear to countries that have WMD as in Iran and North Korea that
Americans will not stand still if pushed too hard
and that mindset is needed and will be for some
time.
If President Bush wins the election, it will have
been won without the mainstream media, they will
be so frustrated it will be fun to watch. Well,
not fun as they can be vicious and frequently are
but when the president wins, they will be able
to see have to see they do not have the power they used to have in their biased information.
Thanks to Fox, talk radio and the internet.
Posted by: Carole | 2004-07-25 2:09:57 PM
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