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Saturday, June 19, 2004

CPC 31.4% Lib 29%

Which the Star describes as a dead heat, not a Conservative lead. I tend to trust this EKOS poll (which is almost identical to the Globe's Ipsos-Reid poll) more than the volatile SES nightly tracking poll, but this still shows some concerns. The least one can say is the Conservatives are not picking up momentum, so the Liberal attacks are having some effect.

But Ontario is interesting:

The NDP continues to make a strong showing in Ontario, with 26 per cent, almost within a range that could justify describing the province as locked in a three-way race.

But this plays out on the ground in pockets of two-way battles, between Liberals and Conservatives or Liberals versus New Democrats. Overall, it spells trouble for the Liberals, as they are chipped away on both sides in the province that has been the bedrock of their three majority governments.

So Liberals are still taking a pounding, though it's hard to say just how bad. They're going to find themselves second in a lot of Ontario ridings, that's for sure.

And the Bloc sweep of Quebec continues, with a stunning 58%.

Posted by Kevin Jaeger on June 19, 2004 in Canadian Conservative Politics | Permalink

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