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Thursday, May 27, 2004

The "w" word

On the weekend I was going through all the information I had, riding by riding, including, in some cases, local polling results. Then my computer began misbehaving Sunday night and since then I have been cut off from the e-world. My gut still says the Liberals just miss a majority but the careful and thoughtful analysis shows something quite different. I don't have the exact numbers but here is a prediction that looks less bold today than it would have Sunday: Conservatives win a minority government. I don't have my exact calculations but something in the vicinity of the high 130s, Liberals about a dozen behind, the Bloc 58, the NDP around 20 and one or two independents (both in Saskatchewan -- Jim Pankiw, who is polling what his opposition is combined, and perhaps Grant Devine or Larry Spencer). Why: the Liberals are reduced to 17 seats in Quebec, just six west of Ontario and four of them are in Winnipeg, and beating the Conservatives by about 15 in Ontario. Dossanjh, Goodale and McLellan lose.

I am ready and eagerly await your comments and realize that many will suggest that, in Anthony Powell's words, the wish is being father to the thought. But I will return on the weekend to explain in greater detail why we can begin to think about a Conservative win.

Posted by Paul Tuns on May 27, 2004 in Canadian Politics | Permalink

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Comments

We could certainly see your prediction come true if the Liberal carnage in Ontario continues.

Posted by: Sean | 2004-05-27 10:00:57 PM


I didn't know there was polling out for Pankiw, but I'm not surprised. There are a lot of people who agree with him in principle, if not in message delivery (oh how he needs a communications strategist)... and to be labeled a "bigot" because you oppose race-based entitlements and programs is so patently absurd that it defies explanation.

Devine - I've already predicted he could win or be a spoiler.

You know... imagine a house evenly split, with Devine, Pankiw and Spencer holding the balance of power. It would be worth electing all three just to know Jack Layton was waking up screaming.... Heh.. they'd all wake up screaming.


Posted by: Kate | 2004-05-27 11:11:40 PM


I really think we're heading for a big upset election here. Maybe even a Conservative majority. There's a reason Canada seldom gets minority governments, and that's because people want to vote for the winner.

When I saw the National Post headline today "Martin to offer cities billions", I saw the end for the Liberals. This was after days of headlines of the Liberals offering various sums for healthcare and after months of more money being offered for everything you could imagine. This is a party reaching for the only weapon they have, but it's a useless one if people believe they won't be back in power. Confidence is disappearing and desperation is setting in. Soon the Liberals will be in a full scale panic.

This is house-cleaning election, just like the ones that washed out Kim Campbell and John Turner. Sit back and enjoy the show.

Posted by: Bruce Gottfred | 2004-05-28 7:36:43 AM


I really think we're heading for a big upset election here. Maybe even a Conservative majority. There's a reason Canada seldom gets minority governments, and that's because people want to vote for the winner.

When I saw the National Post headline today "Martin to offer cities billions", I saw the end for the Liberals. This was after days of headlines of the Liberals offering various sums for healthcare and after months of more money being offered for everything you could imagine. This is a party reaching for the only weapon they have, but it's a useless one if people believe they won't be back in power. Confidence is disappearing and desperation is setting in. Soon the Liberals will be in a full scale panic.

This is house-cleaning election, just like the ones that washed out Kim Campbell and John Turner. Sit back and enjoy the show.

Posted by: Bruce Gottfred | 2004-05-28 7:36:55 AM


You're too late in coming out of the cold. Moreover, you're only "considering" the prospect?

I projected 169 (at least) Conservative seats on May 23rd. Ya-na-na-na-na.

Just joking, but good fun and nice to see the rest of Canada coming around to Ontario's view. (g)

Posted by: Erik Sorenson | 2004-05-28 6:02:08 PM



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