The Shotgun Blog
Monday, May 31, 2004
Ipsos-Reid releases new poll: bad news for Liberals
The poll found that the Liberals are now at 34 per cent among decided voters -- their lowest level since Paul Martin became prime minister in December.
Not far behind is the Conservatives, who have jumped four points to 30 per cent. Support for the New Democratic Party has dropped slightly to 16 per cent, down two points.
[...] Based on those numbers, Ipsos-Reid drafted a seat projection model that suggests the Liberals would win only 122 to 126 seats if an election were held today. The Conservatives would get between 107 to 111 seats, the NDP 15 to 19, and the Bloc Quebecois 56 to 60.
[...] The poll suggests 66 per cent of Canadians believe it is time for a change, up from 60 per cent two weeks ago. Those numbers are highest in Alberta and Ontario.
Meanwhile, 29 per cent of those polled said the Liberal government deserves to be re-elected -- most of those in agreement with that statement were in Atlantic Canada, followed by British Columbia and Saskatchewan/Manitoba.
[...] According to the responses given, the leader with the least amount of momentum is Martin. Only 11 per cent of those polled said their opinion of the Liberal leader and his party had improved over the last few weeks, compared to 47 per cent who said it had worsened. Thirty-six per cent said their opinion has "stayed the same."
The momentum instead appears to be pushing up Conservative Leader Stephen Harper. Thirty-two per cent say their opinion has improved of him over the last few weeks, while 14 per cent say their opinion has worsened. Forty-two per cent said their opinion has "stayed the same."
There is a still a long way to go before the end of the campaign, but there is no doubt that the Conservatives are on the right track.
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