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Tuesday, February 09, 2010

Don't mess with Medina: Tea Party activist Debra Medina is threatening to stir things up in Texas


The Texas Republican gubernatorial primary was supposed to be a really big battle between two very large and important Goliaths. But a little David showed up and is threatening to toss a bag of tea in both their faces.

Debra Medina, a nurse and entrepreneur, entered the GOP's gubernatorial primary with little to no fanfare. The "tea party" activist and Ron Paul organizer was expected to register, well, not at all. The first poll seemed to confirm her status as an also-ran -- registering a mere four per cent as against two-term Texas governor Rick Perry at 46 per cent, and Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison at 35 per cent.

But then a few remarkable things happened. For one, Medina appeared to clean house in the first televised debate between the three candidates. Just about everyone thought Medina had won the debate. And she got a little bit of traction. In fact, and for two, she got just enough traction to be invited to the major televised debate, the state-wide "Belo" debate, aired on several major networks across Texas.

The Belo debate requires that a candidate receive 15 per cent in a major poll in order to be included. After the first debate, Medina managed to more than double her polling numbers from four to 12 per cent. That put Medina within the margin of error of 15 per cent, and the Belo folks decided that she should be included.

The second debate did not have a clear winner, although, having watched it, my own conviction is that Medina outperformed the other candidates (You can judge for yourself by following the link at the bottom of this post and watching the debate for yourself). Although a local Fox affiliate seemed to think Medina did surprisingly well:

Still, Medina's biggest problem was name recognition and simple awareness. And Medina simply can't compete with the campaign war chests of Perry and Hutchison -- both of whom have raised in excess of a whopping $10 million dollars, compared with Medina's comparatively meager half-a-million -- so paying for television commercials to blanket the state is not an option. Measured in those terms, the underdog may or may not have won the debate, but she certainly won in terms of advertising and getting her message out.

That message is beginning to resonate more and more. Medina wants to eliminate the state property tax and replace it with an increased consumption tax. She is a fierce fiscal conservative, and recites the U.S. Constitution with a familiarity and ease that neither of the other two candidates seem to possess. She carries a gun in her car, and insists that Texas needs to be friendlier to the Second Amendment. She shares the convictions of Ron Paul fans, as well as the Tea Party movement sweeping the U.S.

Do I have proof that the message is resonating more and more? Sure I do. After the Belo debate, Medina's numbers moved from 12 to 16 per cent. Meanwhile, today, Public Policy Polling released an astounding poll (PDF), putting Medina's support at a whopping 24 per cent, compared with Perry's 39 and Hutchison's 28 per cent (margin of error at +/- 4.8 per cent).

That wouldn't be a really big deal, since there isn't a lot of time before the election (March 2nd), and Perry is still more than ten points above his nearest competitor. Except that Texas is a primary run-off state. If Perry doesn't get more than 51 per cent, the last place candidate is dropped, and we have a run-off between the top two vote-getters. If Medina manages to get more votes than Hutchison, now a distinct possibility, she may just manage to eke it out, and secure a victory on a par with Scott Brown's surprise election in Massachusetts.

[You can watch the first KERA debate as well as the second BELO debate by following this link]

Posted by P.M. Jaworski on February 9, 2010 in U.S. politics | Permalink


there isnt going to be a runoff- because she is going to win it the first go round. remember this 24% reflects republican voters only- not the tea party dems, libertarians, new registered voters who also support medina.

Posted by: FREEDOM! | 2010-02-09 11:36:36 AM

Amazing news! Amazing Article! For the first time in my life, we have an opportunity to actually throw the bums out without replacing him with another bum who is just like him.

Vote for Medina! I am.

Posted by: Rick Parker | 2010-02-09 11:36:50 AM

Great news....Vote Medina.

Posted by: jd | 2010-02-09 12:24:02 PM

I like Medina. I don't know much about her history or anything though. I've seen some Perry supporters mentioning something about a lake full of bedpans. Whatever.

I never liked Perry. KBH is a DC water drinking untrustworthy RINO.

It would be awesome to see Medina get in a run-off, because I think she can win. And you just know the left will come out the second time for Medina, thinking she'd be easiest to beat.

The problem for Dems is that a dog with an R next to it would beat their guy, I assume Bill White will win their primary. The anti-DC feeling is very high right now and independents have soured on Democrats.

Posted by: Floyd Looney | 2010-02-09 1:48:55 PM

Other than being the only conservative in the race, the other great thing about Medina is her pledge to start using the power of the Texas governor's office to stand up to unconstitutional federal edicts.

This is especially important because even if the GOP wins the US House and Senate in November, Obama's radicals will still control the regulatory apparatus, and the GOP won't have a veto-proof majority.

With Medina's leadership, Texas can show the way for states to start limiting the federal government to the functions the Founders intended.

Posted by: Texan for American Liberty | 2010-02-09 3:05:59 PM

The Texas Governor is actually a weak office, our cabinet being all elected, as you know.

Posted by: Floyd Looney | 2010-02-09 6:34:51 PM

She has my vote. I am tired of the standard Republicrat politics. Finally someone who is standing up for the Constitution!

Posted by: Brendan | 2010-02-10 5:29:37 AM

That picture with her gun in hand must send left libs off the deep end. It's Palinesque.

Posted by: John Chittick | 2010-02-10 12:23:16 PM

Debra Medina was on the Glenn Beck Radio Show today. She was asked about 9-11 conspiracy theories and she declined to rule out the idea that the government was behind bringing down the WTC.

The Medina campaign is over.

Posted by: Floyd Looney | 2010-02-11 12:27:42 PM

Sigh ... another Trufer.

Posted by: Charles | 2010-02-12 11:15:44 AM

Why is it that it so often takes a woman to clean house and show how to do conservative?

Danielle Smith

You go girl!

Posted by: snowgirl | 2010-02-14 12:32:19 AM

Ya sure - don`t forget Hillary , Barbara Boxer , Stretch Pelosi ,Barney Frank [ ok half woman ] . And if you insist I`l tell you why ' it takes a woman to go conservative ' . Many women that rise to the top have a burning desire to prove they have ' balls ' and end up overshooting the mark .

Posted by: daveh | 2010-02-14 7:55:24 AM

Don't lump Medina in with Palin and the rest. Medina is not establishment controlled, and i seriously doubt the CIA will allow her to win.

Posted by: ak | 2010-02-17 11:13:33 AM

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