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Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Watching Dion Snap at CTV, I feel a Little Bit Better
Obviously, I'm not particularly happy with this result. I think that if the Tories had followed my advice - and dug in on unifying conservative ground while throwing MIRV-style strikes at the Liberals, they could have won a majority.
But, I have to admit, that it's gratifying to watch how upset that Dion was when he made his speech. And, more than that, how upset his supporters seem to be. That's probably not a nice thing to say, given that I know and am personally fond of some of his closest and oldest supporters - but it's nice to see the Liberals, after so many years, take a blow. And, really, they should take heart - they won't be out for long. The Conservatives don't seem to have what it takes to really fight and destroy the opposition.
How easy it would have been. Indeed, CTV just now - talking about what one of Dion's closest advisers said - validated my insight into Dion early in the campaign. He was a naive man. He didn't understand the attacks against him. They hurt him personally. If Harper really had the killing touch, he'd have seen that - much as I saw it from the media - that we could have used the power of the media, of constant assault, to physically and mentally break the man. That was how we were going to win this campaign, as you will recall I said back at the beginning, "Dion is the Liberals’ centre of gravity by default. In Canada the leader always is. Destroy Dion and you beat the Liberals."
Think about it. One more percent of the popular vote, and there would be a Tory majority. Three and there'd have been two hundred Tory seats. Damnit.
The winning strategy is there. You attack the enemy leader - you find his weaknesses and you attack him. Against Dion, you do that by simply throwing everything you can think of at him to bewlider and shake him. You make the campaign so nasty and dirty that a lot of people of a weak temperament - the sort you don't want in government anyways - walk away in disgust. You solidify your base. And then, when you're done, you swarm the field and bayonet the survivors.
Posted by Adam T. Yoshida on October 14, 2008 in Canadian Politics | Permalink
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Comments
Unfortunately, Mr. Yoshida, your strategy would never have worked.
What those tactics would have done is reduce overall voter turnout, rather than drive Liberal voters into the arms of the Tories.
Voter turnout already set a record -- about 53 percent of eligible voters. A totally neg campaign would have dropped that amount even lower.
Posted by: PhantomObserver | 2008-10-14 11:26:07 PM
I agree Phantom. Yoshida confuses partisan hatred with intelligent and strategic campaigning. It is a sign of inexperience on Yoshida's part.
Posted by: epsilon | 2008-10-14 11:40:45 PM
I think Adam's right that unifying the 'conservative' base would be smarter than slapping down the so-cons. Something tells me it didn't get him those elusive Que votes. My Que cousins had no reason to change votes/or come out to vote. A sweater vest simply does not inspire 'family values' votes vs nationalism.
Maybe not. Maybe Harper was right and all(?) those so-cons voted for him anyway?(Other than the ones I know, I guess.)
Posted by: lwestin | 2008-10-15 12:05:16 AM
In my opinion the CPC's lack of a bigger success is of their own making. On whole their campaign was pretty pathetic. Major issues were ignored. For example they could have taken the opportunity to debunk the global warming scam and to expose it for what it is. They could have taken a stand for ensuring the protection of freedom of expression and of the press. They certainly had ample ammunition from the excesses of the various HRCs. They could have made a stand for small government and lots of other issues. Yet I found no example of conservative values during their campaign. So based on their past performance and now their campaign, they appear to be content to house-sit for the Liberals. I can only hope they prove me wrong.
Posted by: Alain | 2008-10-15 12:10:33 AM
A majority would give the liberals a chance to rebuild, get a new leader and stop the infighting.
With a minority, much larger, the libs will have to have a leadership convention, and try to raise money to pay off debts and run another campaign in a couple of years. If Dion sits on his hands, and allows bills to pass, it will again turn voters away. If he votes against the govt he can't be sure the ndp or bloc wont also, and he can't have an election for at least two years. He is between a rock and a hard place.
If Iggy or Rae win his job there will still be those who will work against on or the other.
Posted by: MaryT | 2008-10-15 12:22:50 AM
[...] For example they could have taken the opportunity to debunk the global warming scam and to expose it for what it is. They could have taken a stand for ensuring the protection of freedom of expression and of the press.[...] They could have made a stand for small government and lots of other issues. Yet I found no example of conservative values during their campaign. So based on their past performance and now their campaign, they appear to be content to house-sit for the Liberals. I can only hope they prove me wrong.
Posted by: Alain | 15-Oct-08 12:10:33 AM
LOL, good one.
1. Harper's "plan" is most likely much more costly than the Liberals plan. At least the Liberal plan clearl spelled out the cost involved, Harpers "idea" to leave it to the open market adds an unknown quantity to the "cap & trade" scenario which could (and will) end up costing the Canadian industry more, while not really providing any guidance at all. The Liberal plan was a lot more simple and elegant and could actually be easily understood. The Conservative plan in contrast is a tar pit that nobody can judge how deep it is.
Free Speech? Harper? The Guy who didn't even have the guts to answer question from Canadians while all other Leaders managed to do this? Seriously? You expect Harpo to stand up for Freedom of the press after his Government kicked the press out of the ramp ceremonies (only to quietly drop that a few months later)? Serious now?
Small Government? Ha! He has GROWN the Government, heck, even Gomery, the guy somewhat instrument in having the Liberals fall over the Sponsership scandal warned of a dangerous concentration of power in the PMO after Harper took over, not only that but Harper clearly has no interest in transparancy, accountability or small Government at all.
The only conclusion I can reach is that the majority of people didn't really understand the (long non existant) platform the "Conservatives" were running on.
The funny thing is that the "left" in the country (which seems to be to the tune of 63% of the voters) seemed to have figured that out, but the goody two shoes Conservatives who always voted that way because their Dad did haven't.
The ones who were CONned tonight is everybody here and in the rest of Canada who claims to actually be standing for any kind of Conservative values. Congratulations. You got the "leader" you wanted.
On the plus side though: If Harper does not save Canadian Jobs and the Economy now (remember, he has a plan, he just couldn't tell us) it will be on his shoulders and that of the CP(P)C, the next election may cause some serious whiplash in the party supporters.
Yellowton is already showing first signs of cracking.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/map/2008/#258
Posted by: Snowrunner | 2008-10-15 12:49:05 AM
It's funny how Harper has to hide his true colors to win seats. If he showed his true colors he would probably win all of the redneck ridings (AB, MB, SK, BC) but would lose Ontario, Quebec, Atlantic Canada.
Posted by: Bill | 2008-10-15 1:09:23 AM
Theoretically, this is somewhat undefined ground and most of the theoreticals go out the window.
Honestly, all the parties got pulled into too much mudslinging and the media only wanted to see wet dirt fly.
When opportunities existed to appeal to the Canadian people without getting the comments on the cutting room floor (ie, debates) nobody except Harper seemed to discuss issues. Of course, it's hard to summarize defending oneself from a 4 way onslaught (of which at least one if not 2 of the leaders had no right to participate in) during a 5 minute segment on the Nightly National news, but it's easy to show the onslaught.
Harper should have taken more shots.
A counter commercial to Layton's "A New Kind of Strong" stating that
-corporate tax cuts help us keep jobs in Canada which helps Children in poverty by supplying jobs for their parents
-Health Care is a provincial responsibility, but the Governement has increased funding to train more Nurses and Doctors
-and that a clean approach to the tar sands leaves better land going out than going in.
Heck, the Second thing Harper should have done in the English Language debate should have been to look at Jack Layton and say, "Jack, I don't know how to tell you this, but you're not Barack Obama. I'm surprised he hasn't gotten you arrested for identity theft."
Alas, the Conservatives may need someone more Charismatic than Harper next go-around. Too bad, Harper's done a good job, despite the crap he's had to put up with from media and being accused of having a hidden agenda every time he has a smile on his face.
Honestly, if more people around me would have taken the time to match their beliefs into a party platform and decide to vote that way, I'd have more confidence in the Canadian Voter. Unfortunately, I saw ABC's everywhere and people talking about misrepresented facts that they got off of a facebook group.
In an information age, we as a people choose to be so uninformed that I worried whether we'd get the government we need or the government we deserve.
Posted by: prototypedenNIS | 2008-10-15 1:15:37 AM
Heh, we came so close to crushing Conservatism once, we'll finish the job some day. I hope I'm alive to see it. Conservatism is the past that regressive people cling to. Liberalism is the future. Don't be afraid, we won't persecute you like you would us.
Posted by: Murray | 2008-10-15 8:17:52 AM
Adam,
You were the kind of kid that picked the wings off of flies, weren't you?
The problem with politics and government is that it is a sport of violence. As Mr. Yoshida clearly displays, the violent instinct of politicos is present on both the right and left.
Libertarians are in the awkward position of being peaceful players in a violent sport. The result is that we are either massacred or become violent to survive. This explains why Mr. Harper, who seemed pretty libertarian when he entered politics, is drifting toward the state.
The answer to this paradox? The natural home of libertarians is outside politics, in private opposition to the state through newspapers and clubs. That doesn't mean don't vote or run for office. It does mean, though, that you should be extra skeptical of anyone, regardless of their claimed ideology, who believes a particular party or politician will bring them freedom.
The kind of party devotion Mr. Yoshida expresses, and his stated goal of "swarm[ing] the field and bayonet[ing] the [Liberal] survivors," demonstrates that he is not likely an ally of freedom, and that he is probably just as morally misguided as the 'opponents' he wishes to slaughter.
http://www.mikevine.com/
Posted by: Mike Vine | 2008-10-15 9:55:40 AM
he is defiatly not fit to run this county
Posted by: ashly | 2008-10-15 10:01:12 AM
ggggggggggoooooooooooo harper. harper rocks!!
he is fit to lead
Posted by: harper lover | 2008-10-15 10:03:57 AM
...but Adam is right, politics is a blood sport.
I also agree the CPC ads were lame duck. I was actually worried they'd loose the election like a couple of elections ago. Good thing a lot of voters don't watch TV.
One thing, please, please PM Harper, get a new Marketing and PR firm!
Posted by: tomax7 | 2008-10-15 10:06:35 AM
As usual I note that the comments from those suffering from the mental disorder of liberalism are limited to insults (personal and other), and name calling rather than being able to put forth solid arguments defending their ideology.
I concur with tomax7 and Adam that politics is a blood sport and has nothing to do with being nice. We may not like it and want it to be otherwise, but that is the reality.
Posted by: Alain | 2008-10-15 12:12:50 PM
RE: "If Harper really had the killing touch, he'd have seen that - much as I saw it from the media - that we could have used the power of the media, of constant assault, to physically and mentally break the man."
It is becuase Steven Harper did not destroy an easy prey like Dion that he got my vote. Harper demonstrates class and grace under pressure (i.e. Being gang attacked in the live televion debates.), which are qualities I want in a leader. Sure it would have been nice for the Conservatives to have won a majority, and they will the next time when Canadians see firsthand how well Harper handles the economy, but to do so by destrying a weak man like Dion would have been a hollow victory.
Posted by: Nick | 2008-10-15 12:50:53 PM
What sort of drugs are you on?
"Killing touch"
"You make the campaign so nasty and dirty that a lot of people of a weak temperament - the sort you don't want in government anyways - walk away in disgust. You solidify your base. And then, when you're done, you swarm the field and bayonet the survivors."
I think you spend too much time playing first person shooters on your xbox...and too little time actually speaking to real, live people.
Canadians do not like nasty and dirty campaigns...remember the 1993 election and the Chretien ad? That was a good time to be a Conservative...right?
While Dion was a poor leader, I think the Harper actually gained points with many of us center of the universe folks in Ontario by not being too negative in the ads....we like our conservative's civilized.....
Posted by: YYZ Flyer | 2008-10-15 2:30:50 PM
Adam is wrong, mostly anyway.
What the Conservatives need to do is ensure that the electoral map is fair across Canada- that means adding ridings and MP's. After all, the 416 (Toronto) has more (?) ridings up for grabs than the entire province of Alberta. How the hell can an entire province that fuels the national economy have less voice in Government than the center of the universe?
Toronto, Montreal, Ontario and Quebec have enjoyed a lopsided advantage within confederation for far too long. That needs to end, the advantage currently enjoyed needs to be balanced out with the west.
Heck, PEI is smaller than my riding geographically AND in terms of population (I think) yet they have 4 ridings?!
Adams post was amusing though. Impractical, but amusing.
Posted by: Dave Tracey | 2008-10-15 5:05:12 PM
If we accept that war is politics carried on by other means, then it naturally follows that politics is war by other means.
Sometimes it's the right time, when you are up against an honourable foe, to show mercy and magnanimity. The treatment of post-war Japan is a pretty good example of how that should work.
But, at other times, that's just not enough. Especially against an enemy that won't stay defeated or learn its lesson. Sometimes we should emulate the example of the Roman at Carthage.
Posted by: Adam Yoshida | 2008-10-15 11:15:40 PM
Gen. Lewis MacKenzie would disagree with the war analogy.
I'm included to believe somebody who's actually been in a battle zone would have some credibility on the subject.
I believe it's in Wednesday's National Post.
Posted by: set you free | 2008-10-16 12:17:30 AM
"
If Harper really had the killing touch, he'd have seen that - much as I saw it from the media - that we could have used the power of the media, of constant assault, to physically and mentally break the man. That was how we were going to win this campaign, as you will recall I said back at the beginning, "Dion is the Liberals’ centre of gravity by default. In Canada the leader always is. Destroy Dion and you beat the Liberals."
i agree with comments
I travelled in so many country
I was in real war zone and as civlian know tast of war how may can destroy life and cities and anything those bullshit Republican support their anger for made money over muslim
i also been enoguh among all multiculrism Muslim know they are very differnet from each otehrs
i also travled with english and french canadain in business trip
and finally i was enough among bully englihs in busines know their dirty culture
while 90% of english are act human 10% extremist act really like 10% muslim extremist while when you act bully in name of any relgion any nation any culture you are out of game and not act human bening
I know for fact it was Mrs. haper as leader of cosnervative and as journalist and all tories blgos who hit Mr.DIon and he has no idea what plan those bullied made for him he is not get it
peopel who are professor or educated are not behave like this
and not understand treat behind this at all
this method is real ugilry dirty and if you faced one bully woman who are smart you are for sure hit by them not because they are winner they are put your down and belittle you to win
this method used in middle east from englihs culture of England and AMericna bully for so long people think Muslim are buthcer and hated them by media and that medai in hand of CTV and blogs and etc is so danger tools for slander and gosip and talk in back
regard specificlay i am concern about Mulsim now they are hit french with that same sticks now or they are hitting immigrnat and they are hitting the multiculrism
Muslim are very similar like othe canadian they live sleep and go to work dialy and study and univeirty and same moral of do not killinnocent while they show it diffeerent in medai and only 1% of Muslim woman very bazar as culture not part of islam dress code did not force them to do so they do it for backgrfound of arab or afagni
muslim like travel going party and other social like poltiici and care about socity corrution etc
what differnt between msulim nad nonMuslim are food eating tghat now so many veggi food or halal food did helped and only catholic church with no document of WHY? change bilble code for eating since in bible still ban eating pork that pork good for animals food like dog or cat food not for human as jewisha dn muslim are follow that and christian book alos ban it but catholic church allow it century back by chang the law still that is not major problems since muslim can go party and eath with nonmuslim ther is plenty fo food fruit veggi fish and enjoy their company
next problmes after doing 4 years research i noticed is their sex life and again catholic churhc tried to ban Madona kind of life style in 1984 but did not won they had money and spread more to adulty kind of way
now sex education caue so many kinds in age 15 ins school golobal and mail said are not virgin it is too early and may costlya dn cause abortion increased therefor muslim are argue in life style of men and women sex style among mulim nad nonmulsim still debate their arugement long story
next third problmes i noticed the differnt is their entertainment like muslim are not go to bad movie watch while some who born muslim may go or muslim are not go to beach party but they go enjoy walking and camping there not swiming naked there or some party of casiono or gambling is ban in islama nd therefore hollywood kind of fun among muslim and nonmuslim has made them seperat like mulsim like travel and cmaping and fishing or sport or party but not dancing with oppsiti sex
having major of 3 to 4 differnt among muslim with nnonmuslim people who in industy who sell casino did not liek muslim and made media to hit them or if muslim dress code is different people who in indusy selling bikini or supermodle dress hit muslim with gossip and etc.. all gosip among muslim come from direction from industy in conflict of interst not from normal nonmulim groups
media is in hand of intentiaonlly win in wrogn of way good verses bad is not easy to distanguish
\
you will see Mr.Dion is hit not because of his carbon tax instead nobody knwo detail of liberla verses conservative instead tehy hist for his language while we can put one language as main and otehr people can use their own mother tonge as secnd lanague do you thinkg all leader in world tlak englsih in order to run their own country no they have trnaslator to do so.
who should be blame now is mostly catholic pop church who are not stand in those adultry misuse and abuse woman andmen we blame of wrong culture in west among english britain and USA and we blame to extremist in all relgion and culture and we blame to women espcialy catholci woman i saw under name of freedom like sarah paltin is good woman but break main rules to go to bueaty queen k ind of systmes that is wrong message to politic for woman msut sell body to talk and peopel respect thier brain
Posted by: new | 2008-10-16 8:56:15 AM
"
If Harper really had the killing touch, he'd have seen that - much as I saw it from the media - that we could have used the power of the media, of constant assault, to physically and mentally break the man. That was how we were going to win this campaign, as you will recall I said back at the beginning, "Dion is the Liberals’ centre of gravity by default. In Canada the leader always is. Destroy Dion and you beat the Liberals."
i agree with comments
I travelled in so many country
I was in real war zone and as civlian know tast of war how may can destroy life and cities and anything those bullshit Republican support their anger for made money over muslim
i also been enoguh among all multiculrism Muslim know they are very differnet from each otehrs
i also travled with english and french canadain in business trip
and finally i was enough among bully englihs in busines know their dirty culture
while 90% of english are act human 10% extremist act really like 10% muslim extremist while when you act bully in name of any relgion any nation any culture you are out of game and not act human bening
I know for fact it was Mrs. haper as leader of cosnervative and as journalist and all tories blgos who hit Mr.DIon and he has no idea what plan those bullied made for him he is not get it
peopel who are professor or educated are not behave like this
and not understand treat behind this at all
this method is real ugilry dirty and if you faced one bully woman who are smart you are for sure hit by them not because they are winner they are put your down and belittle you to win
this method used in middle east from englihs culture of England and AMericna bully for so long people think Muslim are buthcer and hated them by media and that medai in hand of CTV and blogs and etc is so danger tools for slander and gosip and talk in back
regard specificlay i am concern about Mulsim now they are hit french with that same sticks now or they are hitting immigrnat and they are hitting the multiculrism
Muslim are very similar like othe canadian they live sleep and go to work dialy and study and univeirty and same moral of do not killinnocent while they show it diffeerent in medai and only 1% of Muslim woman very bazar as culture not part of islam dress code did not force them to do so they do it for backgrfound of arab or afagni
muslim like travel going party and other social like poltiici and care about socity corrution etc
what differnt between msulim nad nonMuslim are food eating tghat now so many veggi food or halal food did helped and only catholic church with no document of WHY? change bilble code for eating since in bible still ban eating pork that pork good for animals food like dog or cat food not for human as jewisha dn muslim are follow that and christian book alos ban it but catholic church allow it century back by chang the law still that is not major problems since muslim can go party and eath with nonmuslim ther is plenty fo food fruit veggi fish and enjoy their company
next problmes after doing 4 years research i noticed is their sex life and again catholic churhc tried to ban Madona kind of life style in 1984 but did not won they had money and spread more to adulty kind of way
now sex education caue so many kinds in age 15 ins school golobal and mail said are not virgin it is too early and may costlya dn cause abortion increased therefor muslim are argue in life style of men and women sex style among mulim nad nonmulsim still debate their arugement long story
next third problmes i noticed the differnt is their entertainment like muslim are not go to bad movie watch while some who born muslim may go or muslim are not go to beach party but they go enjoy walking and camping there not swiming naked there or some party of casiono or gambling is ban in islama nd therefore hollywood kind of fun among muslim and nonmuslim has made them seperat like mulsim like travel and cmaping and fishing or sport or party but not dancing with oppsiti sex
having major of 3 to 4 differnt among muslim with nnonmuslim people who in industy who sell casino did not liek muslim and made media to hit them or if muslim dress code is different people who in indusy selling bikini or supermodle dress hit muslim with gossip and etc.. all gosip among muslim come from direction from industy in conflict of interst not from normal nonmulim groups
media is in hand of intentiaonlly win in wrogn of way good verses bad is not easy to distanguish
\
you will see Mr.Dion is hit not because of his carbon tax instead nobody knwo detail of liberla verses conservative instead tehy hist for his language while we can put one language as main and otehr people can use their own mother tonge as secnd lanague do you thinkg all leader in world tlak englsih in order to run their own country no they have trnaslator to do so.
who should be blame now is mostly catholic pop church who are not stand in those adultry misuse and abuse woman andmen we blame of wrong culture in west among english britain and USA and we blame to extremist in all relgion and culture and we blame to women espcialy catholci woman i saw under name of freedom like sarah paltin is good woman but break main rules to go to bueaty queen k ind of systmes that is wrong message to politic for woman msut sell body to talk and peopel respect thier brain
Posted by: new | 2008-10-16 8:56:16 AM
new:
You sound just like Stephane Dion ... totally incomprehensible and irrelevant.
Posted by: set you free | 2008-10-16 9:11:00 AM
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