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Sunday, April 13, 2008
The State of the Race: The Culture War (April 13, 2008)
I’ve begun a new chart – which I intend to maintain for the rest of the Election.
As I’ve been saying in the past, I don’t think that the national polls and the state polls are really in synch this year. I think that, on the ground level, we’re beginning to see signs of the Dukakis transformation which Obama is undergoing.
So, what I’ve done, is to track and consolidate the single most recent poll from every single state. The only entity that I’m missing is the District of Columbia which, in any case, is going to vote for Obama.
You can find the chart here. I’ll be updating it regularly – and providing new commentary on it.
So, what does this chart tell us today? I wouldn’t pay attention to the top-line numbers. Yes, McCain’s ahead 339-204, but those numbers (on both sides) are built on some interesting polls. For example, according to the most recent state polling, Obama is winning North Dakota and McCain is winning New York. I don’t think that either outcome is very likely. Indeed, the March 6th SurveyUSA polls which are the most recent for a number of the states less likely to be contested seem somewhat dubious to me. Also, it’s worth noting that I’ve decided to award ties to whichever party won in 2004.
But, here’s what the polls tell us.
First of all – they all but rule out the “transformational election” scenario for Obama. Obama’s chances of winning depend upon a narrow band of states. In order to win, Obama has to win at least eighteen Electoral Votes that Bush won in 2004 – and to hold on to every single state that John Kerry won. This is going to be an extremely difficult task.
The standard scenario for the Democrats is to hold the Kerry states and then to win Ohio. But this scenario is harder than it appears from the outside. Obama has led McCain in just one Ohio poll in two months – and then by a single point. There’s a reason why Obama was thumped by Clinton there, after all.
Looking across the map, Ohio appears to be the only large state which Obama has a chance of winning away from the Republicans. While polls in North Carolina are tied at the moment, McCain has held a lead there in most other polls. The current poll is likely influenced by the heavy one-sided Obama advertising barrage in the state which is tied to the upcoming primary. The effect will fade.
Beyond that, the Red States where Obama looks like he can win are all smaller: New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, and the like. But he would have to win all three of those states and hold on to every other Kerry vote in order to win (by a single electoral vote).
The problem is that Obama tends to perform best in regions of the country where he’s already going to win (the most progressive parts of New England, the Northwest, and mostly-white Deep Red states where Democrats tend to be affluent and upscale). In contrast, the area where he is underperforming is in what might be called “Old America.” Current polls have McCain winning in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and New York. They have him within the margin of error in New Jersey and, of all places, Massachusetts.
McCain is winning by very large margins in Red States which the Democrats have long believed to be potential battlegrounds – Virginia, Tennessee, West Virginia, Louisiana, and Missouri.
Ignore the exact numbers. They’re probably not very relevant. Instead, look at the broader picture that they paint – and what they suggest about Obama’s recent “small towns” comments.
Obama performs better than expected in places which might be described as culturally “modern.” In many ways, he’s well-suited to somewhere like Nevada – a place which is multi-cultural in a friendly and harmless sort of way. But, these numbers – and the states which he is losing – point towards a persistent level of opposition to Obama among working class “Reagan Democrats” in the Rust Belt and Mid-Atlantic states. This is an important trend to note because the sorts of people who are being swept up in it are the sort of people who the media ignores or patronizes. They’re also the people who Obama just insulted.
I believe that this reinforces what I said yesterday: when you have polls showing the Republican in the lead in New York (and one which showed him tied in Massachusetts) the Democrats have a very serious problem. I believe that Obama is going to lose, that he is going to lose big, and that the media is going to miss it – possibly until the very last moment due to the Pauline Kael syndrome (“I can’t believe it! I don’t know anyone who voted for Nixon”). When it’s over, they’ll blame it on American racism.
The core problem that Obama has – and the one which has been amplified by Wright and the “Small Town” fiasco – is that he is culturally alien to traditionalist Americans. I don’t think that it’s a racial thing. Instead, it has far more to do with his name, his upbringing, and the spreading sense that he – in his beliefs and values – is somewhat un-American. In a Los Angeles nightclub, a Chicago City Council meeting, or New York City Boardroom Obama belongs. But, in the rest of America, they have no idea what a “Community Organizer” does or why service as one should be considered as a virtue. In the rest of America, they have no idea why a Vice-President for “Community Affairs” of a hospital should be paid a third of a million dollars a year, as Michelle Obama was. In elite communities they hear “God Damn America” and make excuses for it. In the rest of the country, they see something threatening, menacing.
Indeed, the end result is going to surprise a lot of people – since most Republican pundits and experts come from the same elite communities as the Democrats do and, deep down, they often share many of their post-national assumptions and values. Like the Democrats, a lot of them condescend to the rest of the country.
Posted by Adam T. Yoshida on April 13, 2008 in International Politics | Permalink
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Comments
"I believe that Obama is going to lose, that he is going to lose big, and that the media is going to miss it"
Nailed it.
"In the rest of America, they have no idea what a “Community Organizer” does or why service as one should be considered as a virtue. In the rest of America, they have no idea why a Vice-President for “Community Affairs” of a hospital should be paid a third of a million dollars a year, as Michelle Obama was. In elite communities they hear “God Damn America” and make excuses for it. In the rest of the country, they see something threatening, menacing."
Absolutely hit it out of the park right there.
Posted by: Tom | 2008-04-13 10:58:34 PM
I do not envy anyone who takes over as president from GW Bush, because it will be a thankless task of cleaning up the mess left behind. Bush has squandered the surpluses left behind by Billy Bob Clinton. Bush has broken almost all the alliances America had when he came into office. NATO is a mess. Bush has lost 2 wars. The infrastructure of America is collapsing everywhere. Health care is a complete and total disaster in the USA on every measurable parameter. The economy is unlikely to ever recover from the mess Bush has made of it. America's weakness as a military power was exposed in Iraq--no one takes American power seriously anymore. Hell, NATO is counting on France to save the day for them!!! LOL!
But in the end, American women are going to elect Obama because he is sexy and smart and intelligent (former law prof) and he makes them excited!
But I am Canadian and wonder why a Canadian blog is getting involved in partisan US politics. Harper sure was burned over trying to interfere down there!
McCain is an impotent old wrinkled guy who snarls easily--graduated right bottom of his class! Hillary is a sexless cynical opportunist who supported Bush once too often. Obama is the darling of American women. First black African to become president of America! Harper is going to lick his feet to try and curry favour! LOL!
Posted by: ROGER | 2008-04-13 11:20:32 PM
Post it to Google Documents as publicly viewable. That way you can add a graph, and increase readability through lines or alternating grey bars etc.
http://docs.google.com
Bonus: It's free.
Posted by: Pattern Recognition | 2008-04-14 8:48:58 AM
McGuire....is this you? No, really, McGuire...you go by "Yoshida" when you want to sound ESPECIALLY venal and stupid? McGuire...McGuire?
Posted by: Fip Bevins | 2008-04-14 11:59:15 PM
Ha, ha,I get it, Roger is a GOP plant to try to convince us that liberals are idiots regardless of what country they come from. No one could actually be so wrong on so many issues. Clever GOP. Roger, thanks for the laugh.
Posted by: V Racer | 2008-04-15 12:29:31 PM
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