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Tuesday, February 05, 2008
Liveblogging Super Tuesday
I'm going to use this as a live thread to blog what happens today. I'll probably be here most of the night.
The rest after the break.
The early story:
Huckabee doing better than expected. Might win a number of states (he's already won Arkansas and West Virginia - he's in the hunt for Alabama, Oklahoma, and Georgia).
On the Republican side, it's shaping up that Missouri might well be the decisive state. With Huckabee winning in the South - and with McCain winning the big winner-take-all states - I think that, if Romney can win Missouri, then he can make the case for staying in the race beyond this. If he doesn't, then it's going to be an ugly night for him.
Looking at the early numbers - though, again, we don't know where they're coming from all of the time - my hunch is that McCain is doing a little bit better than the exit polls said.
On the Democratic side, the results are pretty scattered so far - but I think that Obama needs to win an upset somewhere (New Jersey has been suggested - or a bigger-than-expected win in California) in order to have enough momentum to take the nomination from Clinton.
(5:56PM) Over at the Campaign Spot, Jim Geraghty notes what people have been saying about the exits. They had Romney winning Delaware and, frankly, they seem to be grossly off all over the board - most of the networks have called Alabama for Huckabee, but it's still neck-and-neck and the AP hasn't called it yet.
As well, people have been hyping Romney's chances in Missouri but, right now (admittedly in early numbers - but they're often a good gauge of where things are headed) he's back by ten points.
(6:05PM) At 6:05 PM, here's the state of play:
McCain: CT, DE, IL, NJ, NY
Huckabee: AR, WV
Romney: MA
Clinton: AR, MA, NY, OK, TN
Obama: DE, GA, IL
Those are called. Now, the developing numbers are interesting.
As I mentioned before, most of the networks have called Alabama for Huckabee - but the AP and CNN haven't - and McCain is leading there right now. He's also in the lead in Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Montana. Huckabee is leading in Georgia. Romney, at the moment, isn't in the lead anywhere that hasn't been called for him.
Obama is leading in Alabama, Connecticut, and some more...
As well, right now, McCain is up by six in Alabama with 10% of the vote it.
(6:16pm) Some observations. As I noted above. Romney seems to be tanking - with Huckabee being the winner out of that.
But, in one place, we see something even stranger. With 14% of the vote in in Alabama, McCain is up by 10%, even though the state has been called for Huckabee. I think that they're going to have to call that one back, unless something changes.
(7:11PM) You've got to give it to Huckabee. He's a hell of a speaker. I don't know about all of his views or everything that he's done - but man, does he ever have a silver tongue.
(8:20PM) McCain's pulled within 2700 votes of Huckabee in Missouri.
(8:47PM) Most of the votes still outstanding in Missouri - where McCain now has a 2500 vote lead - are in St. Louis County and City, where McCain leads Romney by 41-35 and 45-29, respectively with Huckabee way behind.
I think I can safely predict that Missouri will go for McCain.
With 11% in in California, McCain is up 44-25 over Romney. Exits show a slight McCain lead. I think he'll take it, too.
(8:50PM) Good God - when did Barak Obama become Jesse Jackson?
Posted by Adam T. Yoshida on February 5, 2008 in International Politics | Permalink
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Comments
The most obvious of all numbers is the HUGE difference between the number voting in the Democrat and Republican primaries.
Makes no difference who Bush's Party nominates, the Republicans are toast.
Posted by: Trudeau's Ghost | 5-Feb-08 6:42:19 PM
..testing, testing, 1, 2, 3.
Is this mike on? we start bombing Russia in 5 minutes...
Posted by: tomax7 | 5-Feb-08 6:46:55 PM
That's always a worry when a lame duck nutcase and his shotgun partner still have their hands on the wheel.
Posted by: Trudeau's Ghost | 5-Feb-08 6:50:32 PM
Huckabee wins my state of Alabama - which I actually predicted. Obama wins for the Democrats. White Republicans tend to be religious, while race trumps gender - Black women go for Obama rather than Clinton.
Fun night! This beats the Super Bowl anyday.
Posted by: Zebulon Pike | 5-Feb-08 6:59:45 PM
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