The Shotgun Blog
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Sunday, September 23, 2007
Get ready for the campaign signs
If Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe is sincere (an admittedly problematic assumption given his past history on the PQ leadership contest), there's an election to be had this fall.
I would say it's due to one of Duceppe's "non-negotiable" conditions to be a guarantee that Canadian troops will be out of Afghanistan by February 2009; in fact, I'm certain Harper will never give an ironclad guarantee on that one because he can use it as a campaign issue (one hawkish party against three dovish ones - this is a no-brainer). However, Harper can ensure an election with even lower-hanging fruit from Duceppe's five conditions.
Take a look at his first three (CP): " the elimination of all federal spending powers in provincial jurisdictions, the Tory government to respect the Kyoto Protocol and the continuation of supply management in the agricultural sector" (emphasis added).
Unless I seriously miss my guess (and keep in mind, I'm an American, so that's largely possible, if not probable), the "continuation of supply management in the agricultural sector" means keeping the Canadian Wheat Board. Harper can now get an election "forced" by standing up for the West against Duceppe's demand to keep the CWB. The PM must be a churchgoer to get this kind of luck.
Then there's Duceppe's fourth condition: "promises to help Quebec's forest industry." Now, last I checked, forestry is one of those "provincial jurisdictions" of which Duceppe just demanded Harper get out. In other words, "non-negotiable" conditions one and four contradict themselves.
Condition number five is, of course, the Afghanistan one. As I said earlier, Harper won't budge on that one. The good news for him is that he can hold firm on Afghanistan with no consequences: he can't possible fulfil conditions one and four, and he can resolidify his base by rejecting condition three.
So why will Duceppe and Dion allow this happen? Refer to McGuire's first rule of Canadian politics: It's all about Quebec. The Bloc and the Liberals have been battling over Quebec's left for years, secure that Quebec's anglo right would hold with the Libs and its franco right with the Bloc. That ended in January 2006. Now, Quebec's franco right is in both Harper and Mario Dumont's corners, leaving only the left for the Libs and the BQ/PQ. For the Libs, they need to out-left the NDP (especially after Outrement - Dion can't be too careful), while the Bloc has to knock down Harper to keep the franco left from sitting the next campaign out.
In other words, an election is coming, and one in which Harper will have nearly all the advantages: an energized base, a demoralized and divided opposition, and the pole position for unity voters in Quebec and Ontario. It's not what Dion and Duceppe want, but they need an election to hang on to their respective political bases. So as the title says, get ready for the campaign signs - coming to a neighbourhood near you.
Posted by D.J. McGuire on September 23, 2007 in Canadian Politics | Permalink | Comments (36) | TrackBack
Down, down, down Dion
Well, here's a no-brainer: pollster Angus Reid is asking visitors to his website whether Stephane Dion will be the next prime minister. At at time when speculation is rampant that Dion might not even be around much longer as Liberal leader -- and, moreover, when the Liberal brand itself is said to be in deep doo-doo -- it's no surprise that 67% of respondents are saying Dion will not be Canada's next PM.
Posted by Terry O'Neill on September 22, 2007 in Canadian Politics | Permalink | Comments (18) | TrackBack
No Bacon, Plz!
The Correctional Service of Canada has awarded $2000 and a “human rights victory” to an incarcerated Muslim criminal, because the prison refused to replace the bacon in his breakfast:
"A Muslim inmate has won $2,000 and a partial human rights victory over a Correctional Service of Canada policy not to replace bacon with a halal diet for Islam-worshipping cons."
(h/t LGF)
Posted by Winston on September 22, 2007 in Canadian Politics, Religion | Permalink | Comments (15) | TrackBack
The Ice Age Cometh
I must first apologize to the two O’Neill’s, to Eugene, posthumously for my play on words using his book title, and to Terry for continuing on the same subject as his post “What about 300, 3000 or 30,000 years ago?”
When I searched for information on Ice Ages I came upon the following site: http://www.museum.state.il.us/exhibits/ice_ages/
To whet your appetite to peruse this site, consider some excerpted quotes. 1 “If "ice age" is used to refer to long, generally cool, intervals during which glaciers advance and retreat, we are still in one today. Our modern climate represents a very short, warm period between glacial advances.” 2 “Decreases in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere may lead to global cooling.” 3 “Important relationships exist between ice ages and the composition of the atmosphere; however, many scientists are unsure whether the changes in atmosphere cause cool periods or whether cool periods cause atmospheric changes.” Finally without bringing in to play the obvious affect of cyclic changes to irradiation, or heat output from the sun itself, this last quote certainly brings into question all the assumptions of Gore, Suzuki, Moore, Dion, Layton and even Harper and Baird. 4 “The Earth's orbit varies through time. Important parameters that vary include the eccentricity of the orbit around the sun, the tilt of the Earth's axis, and the direction the north pole points. Variation in these three factors changes the amount and distribution of incoming solar radiation.” I contend that global cooling poses a far more likely danger than the mostly benign or even advantageous effects of any short term warming. (Re-read quote one) The above named individuals should all be encouraged to visit the Illinois State Museum to widen their perspective on the global warming/cooling controversy
Posted by Bob Wood on September 22, 2007 | Permalink | Comments (12) | TrackBack
I'll bring the pigeons
From The Georgia Straight's annual Best of Vancouver issue, which is out this week:
Best Idea To Celebrate Pierre Trudeau
Former Vancouver councillor Alan Herbert thinks there should be a statue of Pierre Trudeau somewhere in the Davie Village. Herbert, who is gay, thinks Trudeau should be honoured in the West End for saying the state should stay out of the bedrooms of the nation, long before this view became mainstream in Parliament. Trudeau is also the father of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, which has been interpreted by the courts as providing equal rights for gays and lesbians. That led to same-sex pension benefits and to the legalization of same-sex marriages in Canada. Yup, we owe it all to P.E.T.. Say yes to the statue of Trudeau and no to discrimination. Who really cares that he gave the finger to the folks in Salmon Arm? And if the New Democrats and Conservatives have a problem with that, fuddle duddle 'em.
If Mr. Herbert is in earnest regarding this idea, I wonder if he is readying to browbeat his opponents. Oppose the statue and oppose the Charter of Rights! This despite the fact that there are several valid reasons to not be thrilled by this statue, which have nothing to do with homosexuality.
I'll cite one. Why put a statue of a Montrealer, who could be fairly said to have disliked the West--just ask those folks in Salmon Arm B.C. that he waved at without using all his fingers--in downtown Vancouver?
I would ask Mr. Herbert why he's not proposing a statue of a noted Vancouver gay or lesbian who did something significant for the city? I am sure that someone like that, who would be a natural subject for a statue in Vancouver, would readily come to Mr. Herbert's mind...if he puts his mind to it.
Posted by Rick Hiebert on September 22, 2007 in Canadian Politics | Permalink | Comments (10) | TrackBack
Pope Provokes Muslims, Again
Looks like Pope Benedict XVI could find himself in trouble with Muslims again. This time the Pope is accused of attacking Islamic Nations on their treatment of Christians and Muslims who wish to convert to Christianity. To top it off, the Pope also defended the cause of liberty. Lets have a look at these "controversial" comments,
"The exercise of this freedom also includes the right to change religion, which should be guaranteed not only legally, but also in daily practice."
"Terrorism is a serious problem whose perpetrators often claim to act in God's name and harbour an inexcusable contempt for human life."
Chance of rioting and violence in Islamic nations because of this: Good
Read it here
Posted by Leah Dowe on September 22, 2007 | Permalink | Comments (21) | TrackBack
Rising Food Prices and Inflation in China
The Economist has a somewhat disappointing story about rising food prices and inflation in China ($). It essentially says that the rate of inflation is rising in China, and a major reason is that food prices are rising rapidly. Sadly, that is the extent of the analysis.
There is no mention of the fact that aggregate demand has been growing rapidly in China. And given a positively sloped short-run aggregate supply curve, it follows that prices would rise.
There is no mention of the fact that because China has tried to peg its currency to an exchange rate that is too low, export growth has played a major role in causing the rise in aggregate demand.
There is no mention of the fact that in an attempt to sterilize some of the net inflows of foreign currency, central banks have a tendency to increase their own money supply, thus creating overall inflationary pressures.
And there is no mention of the fact that globally, in part due to US policies concerning sugar, the demand for corn and other grains to produce biofuels has sky-rocketed, driving up grain prices around the world and hence affecting food prices everywhere.
Instead, the article smacked of typical MSM journalism. The Economist should be able to do better.
Posted by EclectEcon on September 22, 2007 in Current Affairs | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack
Friday, September 21, 2007
What about 300, 3,000 or 30,000 years ago?
"Melting of Arctic ice shatters record," blares the CBC's website. Some record! They've been keeping track of this sort of stuff for only 30 years. All in all, it's another example of Chicken Littlism.
Posted by Terry O'Neill on September 21, 2007 in Science | Permalink | Comments (9) | TrackBack
An un-important UN
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon wags his finger at Israel over its designation of Gaza as an enemy entity. And only then tacks on a little afterthought: "The continued indiscriminate rocket fire from Gaza into Israel is unacceptable and I deplore it. I call for it to stop immediately. I understand Israel's security concerns over this matter."
Good for him, but as the Jerusalem Post argues, it's clear Ban doesn't truly understand Israel's actual security concerns. For this and other reasons, the paper editorializes that "the UN has lost its standing to comment on the legality of Israeli actions."
Posted by Terry O'Neill on September 21, 2007 in International Affairs | Permalink | Comments (15) | TrackBack
Hey China; We apologize!
Mattel says sorry to China about toy recalls:
"We understand and appreciate deeply the issues that this has caused for the reputation of Chinese manufacturers."
May I ask what reputation they're talking about!?!
Posted by Winston on September 21, 2007 in International Affairs | Permalink | Comments (15) | TrackBack
Friday, September 21, 2007
A new book on Iran
AEI's scholar Dr. Michael Ledeen discusses his newly released book, "The Iranian Time Bomb", on the CSPAN's Book TV.
Posted by Winston on September 21, 2007 | Permalink | Comments (17) | TrackBack
Red tide rising
At a time when the democratic world is growing increasingly alarmed about the political and economic direction Russia is headed, the Kremlin is now declaring that the Arctic seabed belongs to it and it alone.
According to this BBC report, a country claiming ownership of the region's ocean floor must show evidence that the seabed is an extension of their continental shelf. And this, says the Kremlin, is exactly what a Russian expedition has now shown.
Ice Station Zebra, anyone?
Posted by Terry O'Neill on September 20, 2007 in International Affairs | Permalink | Comments (13) | TrackBack
Loonie takes flight
There's now parity between the Canadian and America dollars.
Two of my brothers are in the tourism business, so I know this isn't the best of news for them: not only are more and more Americans staying home (because the currency-related values north of the border have vanished), but more Canadians will now be tempted to take their vacations south of the line. A double whammy.
Over all, though, the higher dollar is a good thing, right? What do Shotgunners think?
Posted by Terry O'Neill on September 20, 2007 in Current Affairs | Permalink | Comments (43) | TrackBack
Taliban used Kids as Human Shields
To all those anti-war activists, this is one of the reasons we are there folks to stop these sickos.
Taliban fighters carrying machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades used children as human shields during a battle in southern Afghanistan on Wednesday, forcing U.S.-led coalition soldiers to hold their fire for a time, the coalition said.
The clash in Uruzgan province began when more than 20 insurgents attacked a joint Afghan and coalition patrol, the coalition said in a statement.As aircraft prepared to bomb the site, "coalition forces as well as the aircraft identified several insurgents in one compound using children as human shields," the statement said. Ground troops and the aircraft withheld fire to avoid injuring the children, it said.
The soldiers did fight the insurgents when they tried to flee the compound, and more than a dozen suspected militants were killed, the coalition said. The report, which was impossible to verify independently, did not list any casualties among troops or civilians.
Maj. Chris Belcher, a coalition spokesman, said Taliban militants have used children as shields before. In June, insurgents forced women and children into a canal in Uruzgan while battling coalition forces, and many of the human shields died in the crossfire, he said.
Read all the details here
Posted by Leah Dowe on September 20, 2007 | Permalink | Comments (8) | TrackBack
Fueling 'volunteers'
Greg Weston in Ottawa Sun: Going beyond Dion
Weston makes an important point about the Liberal by-election campaigns and all the finger pointing at the new leader. Not only has the federal party been unpopular there for a long time, but;
"For years, the big Red Machine in Quebec was fuelled in large part with dirty money that suddenly dried up with the sponsorship scandal.
. . . Such was the popularity of the federal Liberal cause in that province that the party evidently had to pay people for everything from executive services to driving voters to the polls on election day."
Posted by Kevin Steel on September 20, 2007 in Canadian Politics | Permalink | Comments (81) | TrackBack
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Seeking more allies for the mission
Canadian and Dutch governments are asking other NATO members to step up to the plate and increase their activities in the volatile southern Afghanistan:
"Canada and the Netherlands are urging other members of the NATO alliance to send troops to southern Afghanistan to help fight Taleban militants."
It's shameful that NATO countries such as Germany and France are not doing enough to help us in southern Afghanistan while most casualties are from Canada, US, UK and Netherlands. It makes me wonder if old European countries such as Germany and France care to help at all.
Posted by Winston on September 19, 2007 in Canadian Politics, International Affairs, Military | Permalink | Comments (13) | TrackBack
Caledonia arrests
Breaking, CD98.9: Arrests Made in Caledonia at Stirling Street Development Site. Also, McHale at CaledoniaWakeUpCall.com just sent out an email circular that he'll be updating on this throughout the evening.
Earlier, Globe and Mail: Ontario suspends Caledonia land talks
Posted by Kevin Steel on September 19, 2007 in Aboriginal Issues | Permalink | Comments (12) | TrackBack
No fear of tiers
"Ontarians waiting for surgery should be able to go to private clinics and have the government pay for it, Progressive Conservative Leader John Tory says," according to today's Toronto Star.
What's more, even good Liberals, too, are in favour of the right to visit private clinics in the U.S. and pay for treatment out of their own pockets. No waiting in line for them.
Posted by Terry O'Neill on September 19, 2007 in Current Affairs | Permalink | Comments (12) | TrackBack
I-G-N-A-T...and then what?
It's not just Stephane Dion and his team who are increasingly being seen as inept. Check out this little tidbit from B.C.'s Sean Holman, who reveals that supporters of Michael Ignatieff aren't exactly the sharpest knives in the drawer.
Posted by Terry O'Neill on September 19, 2007 in Canadian Politics | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Talking to terrorists
You've just gotta love the premise of WorldNetDaily Jerusalem bureau chief Aaron Klein's new book, Smoozing with Terrorists, in which he rounds up Middle Eastern terrorist leaders and asks them, among other things, to comment upon the utterances of high-profile liberal activists in the U.S.
The headline on WorldNetDaily's story about the book pretty much says it all: "Terrorists disclose: We LOVE liberals!"
I wonder what the terrorists would say about Jack Layton.
Posted by Terry O'Neill on September 19, 2007 in Books | Permalink | Comments (8) | TrackBack
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Quebec voters wanted to WHAT?!?!?
Leave it to Stephane Dion to say something so ridiculous as to bring me back from self-imposed blogging exile.
In his desperate attempt to stop the Iggy-Rae train from running him over, Dion came up with this inventive explanation for his party's meltdown in the Q - it was a protest vote against the Afghanistan mission (G&M): "Most people decided to support the NDP candidate. They thought maybe that it was a clear signal about their disagreement with the current government."
Riiiiight.
That explains why the only unequivocally pro-mission party (the Conservatives) won nearly 60% in Roberval and came within five points of winning in St. Hyacinthe.
By the way, in case anyone is curious, if the vote swing in the the francophone ridings were played out in a federal election, the Conservatives would win two dozen more seats in Quebec, pass the Bloc for the largest federal caucus in the Q, and come within half-a-dozen seats of a majority.
And that doesn't include the Ontario voters who went Liberal in 2006 because that was the only federal party with strength in Quebec (until, of course, they started counting the votes in the Q on election night).
Quebec voters sent the government a message alright - the message was "four more years."
Posted by D.J. McGuire on September 18, 2007 in Canadian Politics, International Affairs, Military | Permalink | Comments (12) | TrackBack
Russia Worries
Looks like Russia is getting nervous about a war starting with Iran. I could see why, if there was a war then they might not be able sell nuclear technology to Ahmadinejad.
Read more @ Ranting Owl
Posted by Leah Dowe on September 18, 2007 | Permalink | Comments (21) | TrackBack
More workers for Alberta?
From our "bribing voters with their own money" department:
"Premier Danny Williams unveiled a key plank in his party's election platform today, pledging to give families in Newfoundland and Labrador $1,000 for every baby born or adopted in the province," reports this CP story.
Posted by Terry O'Neill on September 18, 2007 in Canadian Provincial Politics | Permalink | Comments (17) | TrackBack
Powering down
A battle of the books, children's style, is underway with today's publication of The Sky's Not Falling!: Why It's Ok to Chill About Global Warming by Holly Fretwell. According to the publicity, this is the counterpoint to the Down-to-Earth Guide to Global Warming by Laurie David, estranged wife of Larry David, co-creator of Seinfeld. The blurb on the latter reads, "Engagingly designed, DOWN TO EARTH will educate and empower. . ." It doesn't exactly say who is being empowered. I haven't seen the book, but I hope it isn't too gloomy. Having the poop scared out of you by being told, say, that the world will burn up if you don't turn off your night light doesn't seem very empowering to me. Or maybe it will give kids the sense of controlling the world. hmmm. (btw, in case you haven't caught the latest on "empowerment," here's Onion Radio News: Women Now Empowered By Everything A Woman Does.)
Posted by Kevin Steel on September 18, 2007 in Books | Permalink | Comments (9) | TrackBack
Monday, September 17, 2007
Dumping on Dion
The Liberals are shut out in the three Quebec by-elections. Discuss.
Posted by Terry O'Neill on September 17, 2007 in Canadian Politics | Permalink | Comments (43) | TrackBack
Four stars for The Star
The ultra-Liberal Toronto Star has staked out an editorial position diametrically opposed to that of Liberal leader Stephane Dion on the issue on Canada's refusal to sign the UN declaration on aboriginal rights.
In other words, despite the country's aboriginal leadership and centre-left parties' unanimous support for the declaration, the country's most reliably liberal/Liberal voice is siding with the Tories on this one.
That really says something about just how far to the left (and how deep into left field) Dion has taken the Grits.
Posted by Terry O'Neill on September 17, 2007 in Canadian Politics | Permalink | Comments (13) | TrackBack
Hot air still rising
The only greenhouse gases that Canada should cut are those emanating directly from Brian Mulroney himself.
Posted by Terry O'Neill on September 17, 2007 in Current Affairs | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBack
A commonwealth connection
The "Toronto 17's" alleged Scottish connection has been convicted "of possessing and distributing terrorist material through websites and could face up to 15 years in jail when he is sentenced next month."
Posted by Terry O'Neill on September 17, 2007 in Current Affairs | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Rally 'round the UN
Pretty good round-up of a pro-UN membership rally in southern Taiwan from the blog, The View From Taiwan, with some explanation of the internal politics of that country.
Perhaps some of you--those who keep a closer eye on domestic politics, for instance--are thinking this is just a tempest in teapot, faraway places, nothing to do with us, etc. But some observers of international affairs I have spoken with over the last year, within Canada and without, have made the same statement to me; namely, that 2008 will be a very interesting year for the entire world because of three events; 1. the Beijing Olympics, 2. the American presidential election, and 3. the election in Taiwan (along with referendum). The outcomes of these three things, they maintain, will have big implications globally.
For a little flavour, you might want to take a boo at some Chinese government propaganda in Xinhua: Overseas Chinese continue to blast Taiwan referendum plan
"Overseas Chinese across the world condemn this separatist act and oppose in the strongest terms any attempt at "Taiwan independence," the statement said."
I'm not sure if those are sarcastic quotation marks, or they are acknowledging the fact that Taiwan is already independent. I suspect the former.
Posted by Kevin Steel on September 17, 2007 in International Affairs | Permalink | Comments (10) | TrackBack