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Tuesday, January 24, 2006
Spotlight on Jonquiere
Truly the story of this election is the realignment that has occurred in much of Quebec. To get an idea of what has happened take a look at the stunning results in the riding of Jonquiere-Alma. This is an extreme example, to be sure, but it is indicative of the almost entirely unpredicted Conservative breakthrough in Quebec outside Montreal.
As a background, the riding is in the Saguenay-Lac St. Jean region of northeast Quebec - 99% white francophone and has generally had strongly nationalist leanings. This region voted yes in the 1980 and 1995 referenda, typically votes PQ provincially and Bloc federally. But take a look at these results:
Conservative - 51.94%
Bloc - 39.04%
NDP - 4.02%
Liberal - 3.11%
Green - 1.89%
Absolutely stunning - the Liberals were reduced to fringe party status. Congratulation to the Conservative candidate Jean-Pierre Blackburn for carrying out this feat and bringing this riding into the Conservative fold.
A similar trend happened throughout the province outside Montreal (though to a lesser extent). The conservatives finished a respectable second in dozens of ridings in Quebec - in many cases where they had fairly weak candidates. This is an amazing base upon which a lasting coalition just may be built in the next election. With stronger candidates, ten incumbents and a few cabinet ministers campaigning in the province next time around the possibility of adding to this total is very real.
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Posted by Kevin Jaeger on January 24, 2006 in Canadian Politics | Permalink
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» Le déclin Libéral et la percée Conservatrice au Québec from Le blog de Polyscopique
About two weeks ago, history student Jarrett Plonka pointed out there were many similarities between the 1979 and 2006 campaigns: a young bilingual Conservative leader from Alberta, worries that Conservatives would form a government without representat... [Read More]
Tracked on 2006-01-24 6:41:30 PM
» Le déclin Libéral et la percée Conservatrice au Québec from Le blog de Polyscopique
About two weeks ago, history student Jarrett Plonka pointed out there were many similarities between the 1979 and 2006 campaigns: a young bilingual Conservative leader from Alberta, worries that Conservatives would form a government without representat... [Read More]
Tracked on 2006-01-24 6:45:16 PM
Comments
OK I am from Jonquier and I am happy with the Conservative win. But the reason that the Liberals had suck a low vote was because the liberal candidate told his supporters to vote conservative so the block would not win the seat. Other wise the liberal would of finished 3rd and the Conservatives second
Posted by: Lapointe | 2006-01-24 10:15:53 AM
Dozens? At my count last night (there's a really useful breakdown on radiocanada.ca), the Conservatives ranked second in over 50 ridings. 50. In Quebec. I'm not making this up. Although my math skills are not strong. The only issue is that the West Island (that area of the island of Montreal where the Anglos have traditionally flocked to escape the city) still insists on voting Liberal. I'm thrilled about the inroads the Conservatives have made in my (former) home province. Gives me hope. Maybe one day I can go home again without fear of being ostracized.
Posted by: Sherbygirl | 2006-01-24 10:16:39 AM
OT
Has anyone seen a map of Canada showing party colours for the election results? I've been looking everywhere but none of the media has a map with the ridings represented in the colour of the winning party. Every other election has used them. Where did they go?
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Posted by: jhuck | 2006-01-24 10:25:38 AM
Conversely, or even perversely, the liberals PICKED UP a seat in BC. Is this proof that democracies always fail because people realize that they can vote themselves other people's money or is it simply a matter of too much rain making brains mushy?
Posted by: Rob R | 2006-01-24 10:41:03 AM
Liberals reduced to a national fringe party.. and for how long for the Conservatives have 124 and the Liberals 103 seats.. and the Conservatives do not even have the needed 155 majority seats.. clearly they too the Conservatives here need more lessons in humility.. a short lived Conservative government like Joe Clark's was..
many even key ex Liberal cabinet Ministers were reelected..
Dan McTeague Liberal Re-Elected
Wayne Easter Liberal Re-Elected
Lawrence MacAulay Liberal Re-Elected
Judy Sgro Liberal Re-Elected
Carolyn Bennett Liberal Re-Elected
Joseph Volpe Liberal Re-Elected
Belinda Stronach Liberal Re-Elected
Denis Coderre, Liberal Re-Elected
John McCallum Liberal Re-Elected
David McGuinty Liberal Re-Elected
Ken Dryden Liberal Re-Elected
Ujjal Dosannjh Liberal Re-Elected
Andy Scott Liberal Re-Elected
Bill Graham Liberal Re-Elected
Jean Lapierre Liberal Re-Elected
Ralph Goodale Liberal Re-Elected
Hedy Fry Liberal Re-Elected
Posted by: A Canadian | 2006-01-24 10:46:10 AM
Also note that Jean-Pierre Blackburn was the MP for the riding from 1984 to 1993, and apparently personally quite popular there. Not to say that the Tory revival in Quebec wasn't real, of course, but he was particularly well-suited to take advantage of it-- and did.
Posted by: John Thacker | 2006-01-24 10:47:02 AM
Lapointe - yes, I understand there were special circumstances in Jonquiere that greatly exaggerated the trend elsewhere in the province. But still, Jean-Pierre had to build a sufficiently strong lead over his Liberal rival before they gave up.
And any way you look at it seeing a 52% Conservative vote in that region is simply outstanding and I hope a sign of more to come.
Meanwhile, I have to live with being represented by a Blochead in federalist Gatineau. Sigh.
Posted by: Kevin Jaeger | 2006-01-24 10:48:58 AM
A perfectly unknown person whose name was never mentioned in the local newspapers, got 8 000 votes for CPC in Chicoutimi Le Fjord, the riding where I live. It is next to Jonquière Alma. This is an indicator riding for its habit of detecting the trend before other ridings. Normally it is a stronghold for sovereignists.
I think if the libs candidate would have done as in Jonquière, the CPC candidate would have won.
I expect CPC to win the riding in the next election.
Posted by: Rémi Houle | 2006-01-24 11:39:35 AM
Apparently being spoken to directly and in a forthright manner is something people like!
Especially after being patronized for.......
??? how long???
Go Figure
Posted by: PGP | 2006-01-24 6:11:48 PM
We have a bunch of new (and presumably volatile)Conservatives. I hope the party has a follow-up campaign to ensure they are appreciated, talked to and listened to.
Posted by: pete e | 2006-01-24 7:58:13 PM
Don't assume Montreallers hate Conservatives. More likely, they stay together to avoid splitting the federalist vote. If the conservatives had risen on the island, they may well risen quickly.
Posted by: pete e | 2006-01-24 7:58:35 PM
Montreal Libreals are not much different than Toronto Libreals. They still think the country will go to hell in a hand basket if they vote Conservative. That and they think this will cause the separatists to go nuts. Many in Toronto were speechless in the media when the reports were coming in that Quebec was going through a Conservative revivial. That did not fit the template that only Libreals could protect Canada in Quebec. Well as it turns out, it is the Conservative Party of Canada that is going to save Canada. If Harper can do a lot to stuff the genie back in the bottle, we might see the Separtists never get as close as they thought they were, maybe forever. Irony, the first Prime Minister from outside of Quebec politically in 20 plus years and the 2nd in 40 years is the guy who might just be able to meet Quebec's aspirations while keeping the country whole. Personally, I think Quebec has to come back to Canada a little, and maybe this victory by the CPC is a sign that they have realized being part of a greater whole is the best thing that can happen to Quebec. Let us hope so, for better or worse they are part of this country.
Posted by: Mark in Bowmanville | 2006-01-25 3:29:17 AM
Mark,
Quebec never left Canada in the first place, we left the liberal vision of Canada a long time ago, where a big powerful federal gov't would be omni-present in people's lives. Real conservatives want less government.
Parizeau and the separatists have always wanted more government, he was once quoted that he agreed with everything that Pierre Trudeau espoused, except for the name of the capital.
What you saw on Monday was a return to the inherent conservative values of most people in Quebec coming back to where they belong, a real conservative party. If Harper doesn't do anything perceived as wildly outrageous here, he will win a majority of seats in Quebec next time round.
Posted by: David | 2006-01-26 2:47:46 PM
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