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Saturday, April 24, 2004
How could the Libs get a majority
The Globe and Mail reports that a memo given to Prime Minister Paul Martin says the Liberals could keep their majority even though they are below 40% in the polls because the party kept their majority in 1997 with about the same level of support (38%) that the party is enjoying in the current polls (39% in latest Environics poll). The story begins:
"Some of Paul Martin's advisers are saying they have as much support as Jean Chrétien did when he won a majority government in 1997 and that's good enough to call a spring election.
Still, they expect to lose 15 to 20 seats in Ontario and hold on to at least 20 seats in Quebec."
If they lose 20 seats in Ontario, keep just 20 seats in Quebec and they do not pick up seats elsewhere, they will just miss a majority government. But take into consideration the following facts: the Environics poll is the best result the Liberals have seen for a while, especially the Ontario numbers which show the Liberals much stronger than other recent polls and the fact that many observers of Quebec politics predict the Liberal/Bloc split is more likely to resemble '93 than'97.
I talked to a top Liberal strategist this week who said, "We can see no scenario in which the situation improves for our party in the next 18 months." His analysis if an election is held by June went like this: half of Atlantic Canada will see tight three-way races, the Liberals are lucky to get 20 seats in Quebec, as many as 40-50 seats in Ontario are up for grabs (the Conservatives put the number around 20-25) and the Liberals will lose seats in the West, especially Saskatchewan and BC, although they think Douglas-Burnaby (Svend Robinson's riding) is a three-way race they might win and they hope to win Keith Martin's seat. He said the Conservatives will pick up most of the seats in the West (but subtract one from their current totals -- the NDP will win Larry Spencer's seat now that he will divide the right running as an independent) and perhaps as many as 35-40 in Ontario. The NDP will win a half dozen Toronto ridings and seriously challenge in certain Hamilton, London, Ottawa and Windsor ridings. He added that only a fool would predict which way the races will break in the East.
All of which leaves us with what? By my count, based largely on the Liberal strategist's insights, the Conservatives could pick up a net of five to eight seats in the West, the NDP two to five. I'm not optimistic about the 35-40 in Ontario but there is the phenomenon of most close ridings breaking one way or another; that is, either the Conservatives will do well in most close Ontario races or they will end up with a handful -- there is no in-between. Either 35 to 40 or five to ten. I doubt, however, if there are really 45-50 vulnerable Liberals. I can't see the Conservatives picking up seats in Atlantic Canada this time around; anti-Martinite voters will probably vote NDP or, like many fed-up Ontario voters in 1997 and 2000, stay home. So the Conservatives could end up with around either 90 or 120 seats, the NDP with around 30, the Bloc 55 and the Liberals either 130 or 100, give or take a few.
Of course, predicting how an election will end before it is even called is a rather silly if irresistible game.
Posted by Paul Tuns on April 24, 2004 in Canadian Politics | Permalink
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Comments
I think serious thought should be given to begin to find a legal process to start the seperation of the West from the rest of Canada if the Conservative Party can't win this election.If after the revelations of third world style corruption in the Liberal party isn't enough to smarten up Ontario(forget Quebec) there simply isn't any hope. The moral corruption and degeneracy of the East is abhorent and it would be time to cut them loose.
Posted by: al kenny | 2004-04-24 7:43:26 PM
I think you're wrong about CPC picking up some seats in Atlantic Canada. There's a small handful that could flip. Notwithstanding King's Hants, Cardigan on PEI and Andy Scott's in New Brunswick (can't remember it's name) are both good contenders. The polling is showing no mass-former PC movement away from the CPC.
Posted by: Name Withheld by Request | 2004-04-25 2:22:47 PM
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